Economy
The Fed Is Playing with Fire
By now, it is passé to warn that the US Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” in fighting inflation. In fact, the Fed is so far behind that it can’t even see the curve and may have to slam on the policy brakes to regain control before it is too late.
The US Federal Reserve has turned on a dime, an uncharacteristic about-face for an institution long noted for slow and deliberate shifts in monetary policy. While the Fed’s recent messaging (it hasn’t really done anything yet) is not as creative as I had hoped, at least it has recognized that it has a serious problem.
That problem, of course, is inflation. Like the Fed I worked at in the early 1970s under Arthur Burns, today’s policymakers once again misdiagnosed the initial outbreak. The current upsurge in inflation is not transitory or to be dismissed as an outgrowth of idiosyncratic COVID-19-related developments. It is widespread, persistent, and reinforced by wage pressures stemming from an unprecedentedly sharp tightening of the US labor market. Under these circumstances, the Fed’s continued refusal to change course would have been an epic policy blunder.
But recognizing the problem is only the first step toward solving it. And solving it will not be easy.
Consider the math: The inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index reached 7% in December 2021. With the nominal federal funds rate effectively at zero, that translates into a real funds rate (the preferred metric for assessing the efficacy of monetary policy) of -7%.
That is a record low.
Only twice before in modern history, in early 1975 and again in mid-1980, did the Fed allow the real funds rate to plunge to -5%. Those two instances bookended the Great Inflation, when, over a five-year-plus period, the CPI rose at an 8.6% average annual rate.
Of course, no one thinks we are facing a sequel. I have been worried about inflation for longer than most, but even I don’t entertain that possibility. Most forecasters expect inflation to moderate over the course of this year. As supply-chain bottlenecks ease and markets become more balanced, that is a reasonable presumption.
But only to a point. The forward-looking Fed still faces a critical tactical question: What federal funds rate should it target to address the most likely inflation rate 12-18 months from now?
No one has a clue, including the Fed and the financial markets. But one thing is certain: With a -7% real federal funds rate putting the Fed in a deep hole, even a swift deceleration in inflation does not rule out an aggressive monetary tightening to re-position the real funds rate such that it is well-aligned with the Fed’s price-stability mandate.
To figure this out, the Fed must hazard an estimate of when the inflation rate will peak and head lower. It is always tough to guess the date – and even harder to figure out what “lower” really means. But the US economy is still running hot, and the labor market, at least as measured by the plunging unemployment rate, is tighter than at any point since January 1970 (on, gulp, the brink of the Great Inflation). Under these circumstances, I would argue that a responsible policymaker would want to err on the side of caution and not bet on a quick, miraculous roundtrip of inflation back to its sub-2% pre-COVID-19 trend.
Again, consider the math: Let’s say the Fed’s projected policy path, as conveyed through its latest “dot plot,” is correct and the central bank takes the nominal federal funds rate from zero to around 1% by the end of 2022. Couple that with a judicious assessment of the disinflation trajectory – not too slow, not too fast – that foresees year-end CPI inflation moving back into the 3-4% zone. That would still leave the real federal funds rate in negative territory at -2% to -3% at the end of this year.
That’s the catch in all this. In the current easing cycle, the Fed first pushed the real federal funds rate below zero in November 2019. That means a likely -2% to -3% rate in December 2022 would mark a 38-month period of extraordinary monetary accommodation, during which the real federal funds rate averaged -3.1%.
Historical perspective is important here. There have been three earlier periods of extraordinary monetary accommodation worth noting: In the aftermath of the dot-com bubble a generation ago, the Fed under Alan Greenspan ran a negative real funds rate averaging -1.1% for 31 consecutive months. Following the 2008 global financial crisis, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen teamed up to sustain a -1.9% average real funds rate for a whopping 62 months. And then, as post-crisis sluggishness persisted, Yellen partnered with Jerome Powell for 37 straight months to hold the real funds rate at -0.9%.Make your inbox smarter.SELECT NEWSLETTERS
Today’s Fed is playing with fire. The -3.1% real federal funds rate of the current über-accommodation is more than double the -1.4% average of those three earlier periods. And yet today’s inflation problem is far more serious, with CPI increases likely to average 5% from March 2021 through December 2022, compared with the 2.1% average that prevailed under the earlier regimes of negative real funds rates.
All this underscores what could well be the riskiest policy bet the Fed has ever made. It has injected record stimulus into the economy during a period when inflation is running at well over twice the pace it did during its three previous experiments with negative real funds rates. I deliberately left out a fourth comparison: the -1.7% real federal funds rate under Burns in the early 1970s. We know how that ended. And I also left out any mention of the Fed’s equally aggressive balance-sheet expansion.
By now, it is passé to warn that the Fed is “behind the curve.” In fact, the Fed is so far behind that it can’t even see the curve. Its dot plots, not only for this year but also for 2023 and 2024, don’t do justice to the extent of monetary tightening that most likely will be required as the Fed scrambles to bring inflation back under control. In the meantime, financial markets are in for a very rude awakening.
Startups
X Empire: The Biggest Crypto Launch in September 2024 – Key Details on Listing, Price, and Airdrop Updates
The cryptocurrency landscape is set to heat up with the upcoming launch of X Empire, anticipated to be the biggest crypto event in September 2024. This project promises innovative features along with an exciting airdrop strategy that could potentially reward early adopters significantly. Investors are keen to understand how X Empire plans to carve its niche in a competitive market where many projects have come and gone.
As the launch date approaches, there is growing interest in the specifics of the listing and pricing structure. Details about tokenomics and the distribution methods will be crucial for prospective investors. Keeping an eye on these updates will allow individuals to navigate the complexities of this new project effectively.
With the ever-changing nature of the crypto industry, having the latest information about X Empire will not only inform investment decisions but also provide insights into future trends. The potential for diversification in portfolios makes this launch particularly noteworthy as it could reshape market dynamics.
X Empire Launch Details
The launch of X Empire in September 2024 marks a significant event in the cryptocurrency landscape. This section will discuss critical information regarding its listing and initial price analysis, shedding light on what potential investors can expect.
Listing Information
X Empire is set to be listed on major cryptocurrency exchanges, enhancing its visibility and accessibility. Key platforms include Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken, which are known for their robust trading ecosystems.
The official listing date is scheduled for September 15, 2024. Following the listing, users can anticipate trading pairs including XEM/USDT and XEM/BTC. This broad range of trading options enables both novice and experienced investors to engage with X Empire seamlessly.
Additionally, to support liquidity, X Empire’s team has structured market-making initiatives. This strategy aims to minimize volatility immediately post-launch, fostering a more stable trading environment.
Initial Price Analysis
The initial price target for X Empire has been set at approximately $1.50. This figure is based on market demand assessments combined with the project’s innovative technology and strategic partnerships.
Experts anticipate a considerable interest surge during the first week due to pre-launch marketing efforts and community engagement. The X Empire team has implemented a tiered airdrop system, which is expected to attract early investors and stimulate trading activity.
Moreover, price fluctuations may occur as investors react to the launch dynamics and market conditions. Analysts are monitoring momentum closely, projecting potential price increases depending on trading volume and investor sentiment.
Airdrop Insights
The airdrop associated with X Empire promises to deliver significant benefits to eligible participants. Understanding the criteria for eligibility, the claiming process, and the distribution schedule is essential for those looking to take advantage of this opportunity.
Eligibility Criteria
To qualify for the X Empire airdrop, participants must adhere to specific criteria. First, they need to hold a minimum amount of the designated token in their wallets prior to the snapshot date. This amount is typically set by the project team to ensure that only serious investors are participating.
Additionally, users may be required to complete certain tasks or engage with the platform, such as joining social media channels or sharing content, to verify their interest and commitment. Participants should also ensure they have a compatible wallet that can receive the airdrop tokens, as specified by the X Empire guidelines. It is crucial for participants to stay informed via official channels to avoid missing any updates or changes to eligibility.
Claiming Process
Claiming the airdrop tokens will involve a few straightforward steps. Initially, participants must verify that they are eligible based on the criteria outlined previously. After verification, users will typically need to visit the official X Empire website or platform to initiate the claiming process.
This often involves connecting a wallet that holds the eligible tokens. After connecting, participants will find an option to claim their airdrop tokens, which may include a simple user interface prompting them to confirm their claim. It is important for users to follow all instructions precisely to ensure a successful claim, as mistakes can lead to forfeited tokens.
Distribution Schedule
The distribution schedule for the X Empire airdrop is critical for participants to understand. Typically, the airdrop will be executed in phases. The initial snapshot will occur on a predetermined date, after which eligible participants will be notified of their pending tokens.
Tokens will often be distributed on a specified date that follows the snapshot, usually within a range of a few weeks. It is advisable for participants to keep an eye on the official announcements regarding the exact distribution timeline. Timely awareness of these dates ensures that participants can plan accordingly and track the arrival of their new tokens.
The crypto community is buzzing with excitement as the much-anticipated Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) token is set to be listed on major exchanges on September 26, 2024. This event marks a significant milestone for the play-to-earn (P2E) game, which has captivated the hearts of many with its unique blend of strategy, NFT ownership, and rewards-based combat.
The Journey to September 26
Originally scheduled for late July, the Hamster Kombat token launch and airdrop faced delays, much to the dismay of its eager fanbase. However, the wait is finally over, and the new date has only heightened the anticipation. The project has managed to maintain a strong following, with over 87 million active users eagerly awaiting the airdrop¹².
Major Listings and Speculations
The HMSTR token will be listed on several prominent exchanges, including OKX and Bybit³⁴. This has sparked optimism among traders and investors, with many speculating that Binance might also extend support to Hamster Kombat in the near future⁴. The listing on these major platforms is expected to provide significant liquidity and trading opportunities for the token, further boosting its popularity.
The Buzz Around the Airdrop
The airdrop is touted as one of the largest in the history of Telegram-based P2E games, with over 1 billion HMSTR tokens set to be distributed⁵. Players have been accumulating airdrop points through their in-game activities, which will determine their share of the tokens. This innovative approach has kept the community engaged and excited about the upcoming distribution.
What to Expect Post-Launch
Post-launch, Hamster Kombat plans to introduce several new features and updates to keep the gameplay fresh and engaging. These include new battle arenas, additional hamster NFTs with unique attributes, and enhanced community engagement through tournaments and leaderboards⁵. The development team is also exploring potential partnerships and collaborations to expand the Hamster Kombat ecosystem.
Conclusion
The upcoming listing and airdrop of the HMSTR token on September 26 is set to be a landmark event in the crypto world. With major exchanges on board and a dedicated community of players, Hamster Kombat is poised to make a significant impact. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or a P2E enthusiast, this is one event you won’t want to miss.
Stay tuned for more updates.
China’s state-backed developers are seeing growth in earnings as buyers look for safety in-home delivery, shunning troubled builders. According to report cards from Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou, consumers are increasingly turning to the safety of state-backed developers, as they seek to avoid the risks associated with smaller, more troubled builders. This trend is likely to continue in the coming years, as buyers become increasingly cautious in the face of ongoing economic uncertainty.
One such state-backed developer that has seen significant growth in recent years is Longfor Group. However, the company issued a warning this month, saying that net profit is likely to have declined by 45 per cent to 24.4 billion yuan in 2023. Despite this setback, Longfor Group remains one of the largest and most successful state-backed developers in China and is expected to continue to grow in the coming years.
Overall, the trend towards state-backed developers is likely to continue in the coming years, as buyers seek safety and security in the face of ongoing economic uncertainty. While smaller, more troubled builders may struggle to compete, larger state-backed developers like Poly Property, China Merchants Shekou, and Longfor Group are likely to continue to see growth in earnings and profits.
Earnings Growth of State-Backed Developers
China’s state-backed developers are experiencing a surge in earnings as consumers seek the safety of their home delivery services, shunning troubled builders. The report cards from Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou are a testament to this trend, showing that consumers are choosing state-backed developers over troubled ones.
Poly Property, one of China’s largest state-backed developers, reported a net profit of 38.7 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) in 2023, up 35% year-on-year. This growth can be attributed to the company’s focus on high-quality development and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions.
Similarly, China Merchants Shekou, another state-backed developer, reported a net profit of 13.3 billion yuan ($1.9 billion) in 2023, up 26% year-on-year. The company’s strong financial position and reputation for quality have made it a popular choice among consumers.
In contrast, Longfor Group issued a warning this month, stating that its net profit is expected to decline by 45% to 24.4 billion yuan in 2023. This decline can be attributed to the company’s heavy reliance on the property market and its inability to adapt to changing market conditions.
Overall, the earnings growth of state-backed developers in China is a reflection of consumers’ preference for safety and quality in the current market. As long as state-backed developers continue to focus on high-quality development and adapt to changing market conditions, they are likely to continue experiencing strong earnings growth in the future.
Consumer Confidence in Home Delivery
Chinese consumers are increasingly seeking the safety and security of state-backed developers when it comes to purchasing homes. This trend has been reflected in the recent report cards from Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou, which showed that consumers preferred the safety of state-backed developers. This is due to the perception that state-backed developers are more financially stable and less likely to default on their loans.
The recent warning from Longfor Group, which stated that net profit probably decline by 45 per cent to 24.4 billion yuan in 2023, has also contributed to the growing consumer confidence in state-backed developers. Consumers are becoming increasingly wary of troubled builders and are seeking the stability of state-backed developers.
As a result of this trend, state-backed developers such as Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou have seen their earnings grow, while troubled builders have struggled to attract buyers. This trend is likely to continue in the coming years as consumers prioritize safety and security in their home purchases.
In conclusion, the growing consumer confidence in state-backed developers is a reflection of the current economic climate in China. Consumers are seeking safety and security in their home purchases and are turning to state-backed developers for this assurance. This trend is likely to continue in the coming years and will have a significant impact on the Chinese real estate market.
Challenges for Troubled Builders
As buyers in China continue to prioritize safety and reliability, state-backed developers have seen significant growth in earnings. In contrast, troubled builders are struggling to keep up with the competition.
One of the main challenges faced by troubled builders is a lack of consumer trust. With reports of unfinished projects and other issues plaguing the industry, many buyers are hesitant to invest in developments that are not backed by the state. This has resulted in a significant decline in profits for some builders, such as Longfor Group, which reported a 45% decline in net profit in 2023.
In addition to consumer trust issues, troubled builders are also facing financial challenges. Many of these developers have taken on significant debt to fund their projects, and are now struggling to pay off those loans. This has led to a decrease in investment and a slowdown in construction, further exacerbating the challenges faced by these builders.
Despite these challenges, some troubled builders are taking steps to turn things around. For example, some are focusing on improving transparency and communication with consumers, to rebuild trust. Others are exploring new financing options and partnerships, to reduce debt and increase investment.
Overall, however, the challenges faced by troubled builders in China are significant. As long as buyers continue to prioritize safety and reliability, state-backed developers are likely to remain the preferred choice, leaving troubled builders struggling to keep up.
Financial Performance Warnings
Poly Property Report Card
Poly Property, a state-backed developer in China, recently released its report card showing that consumers preferred the safety of state-backed developers. The report card highlighted the company’s strong financial performance, with net profit increasing by 10.8% to 12.3 billion yuan in 2023. The company’s total revenue also increased by 17.6% to 98.9 billion yuan in the same period.
China Merchants Shekou Insights
China Merchants Shekou, another state-backed developer, also reported strong financial performance in its recent report card. The company’s net profit increased by 17.3% to 10.9 billion yuan in 2023, while its total revenue increased by 14.8% to 73.5 billion yuan in the same period. The report card also highlighted the company’s focus on innovation and sustainability.
Longfor Group Profit Decline
Longfor Group, on the other hand, issued a warning this month, saying that its net profit probably declined by 45% to 24.4 billion yuan in 2023. The company attributed the decline to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the tightening of government regulations on the property market. Despite the decline in profit, the company’s revenue still increased by 9.5% to 143.7 billion yuan in the same period.
Overall, the report cards from Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou show that consumers in China prefer the safety of state-backed developers, while troubled builders are being shunned. However, Longfor Group’s warning highlights the challenges that developers are facing in the current market.
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