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China moves closer to Russia, but wary on Ukraine

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China and Russia set off alarms in the West this month with the most robust declaration of their friendship in decades but Beijing has signalled it would not back Vladimir Putin if he sent troops in to invade Ukraine.

The February 4 joint statement by the neighbours included unprecedented support from Beijing for Moscow’s opposition to the expansion of NATO, and came as Washington and its allies were warning of full-scale Russian military action against Kyiv.

It was “quite a quantum shift from what has been a steady intensification, elevation of the content of Russia-China declarations over the last 20 years”, former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd said during an online discussion co-hosted by the Atlantic Council think tank and the Asia Society.

“It is China becoming a global security actor in a way that I personally have not seen before.”

China’s unusually direct position on NATO and support for Moscow’s “reasonable” security concerns have, however, placed it on a diplomatic tightrope, forcing it to balance its close Russia ties with major economic interests in Europe.

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With more than 150,000 troops massed on the border with Ukraine, Russia has demanded guarantees that Kyiv will never be allowed to join NATO — a position in stark contrast to China’s long-standing stated foreign policy red line: no interference in other countries’ internal affairs.

When asked if there was a contradiction, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the Munich Security Conference via video link Saturday that the sovereignty of all nations should be respected.

“Ukraine is no exception,” he said.

That position was tested in just two days.

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Russian President Putin on Monday recognised two “republics” in Ukraine held by pro-Moscow separatist rebels, and ordered the deployment of troops there.

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The United States and its allies blasted Russia for violating the sovereignty of Ukraine at an emergency UN Security Council meeting, but China was circumspect, urging restraint by “all sides”.

Putin has “denied the territorial independence and sovereignty — indeed, the very existence — of Ukraine”, Ivo Daalder, former US ambassador to NATO, wrote on Twitter.

“Both were core… (tenets) of China’s approach to the crisis. Putin has blown both to bits.”

This is not the first time China has had to strike a delicate balance between its interests and a major international escalation by its strategic partner Russia.

When Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014, China did not join Russia’s veto of a UN Security Council resolution on the issue, instead abstaining and mainly offering economic support.

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Eight years later, experts say there are again limits to what Beijing can — or wants to — do for Moscow.

Among the key factors are trade and financial links with Europe. Overt backing of any Russian belligerence could also threaten the major investment deal Beijing is trying to seal with the bloc.

Further, some analysts say China may not want to escalate already high tensions with the United States.

“The Ukraine crisis… carries significant risk of the bottom falling out of (China’s) relationships with the EU and the US,” wrote Bill Bishop in the Sinocism China Newsletter.

“I do not believe that Xi and his team want to see Russia invade Ukraine, as they understand the risks from the expected reaction to any invasion.”

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Others said that, with its support for Moscow’s concerns about NATO, Beijing may be looking to its own future security interests.

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By implicitly siding with Moscow, Beijing gains “considerable diplomatic leverage” and “presumes that Russia will act likewise when China finds itself in a critical security situation”, Richard Ghiasy, an expert at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, told AFP.

Despite Beijing’s guarded language on Ukraine, observers say the China-Russia joint announcement is still a stark challenge to the United States and its allies beyond the current crisis.

The statement contained challenges to the definitions of democracy and human rights, which Moscow and Beijing have been accused of violating by the West for years.

This prompted scathing criticism in Europe, with some accusing two authoritarian regimes of trying to redefine universal concepts to suit their agenda.

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“It’s an act of defiance,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said at the Munich Security Conference on Sunday.

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Second China-Europe Railway Forum 2025: Xi’an Hosts Global Leaders for Belt and Road Connectivity Boost

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Xi’an, China – November 13, 2025 – In a landmark move for Eurasian trade and logistics, the ancient city of Xi’an is set to become the epicenter of innovation as it hosts the Second China-Europe Railway Express Cooperation Forum from November 18-20, 2025. Announced by China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), this high-profile event promises to accelerate the China-Europe Railway Express—a vital artery of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—delivering faster, greener, and more reliable freight connections between Asia and Europe.

If you’re tracking the future of international rail freight, Eurasian supply chains, or sustainable logistics, this forum is unmissable. With freight volumes surging 20% year-over-year on key routes, the event arrives at a pivotal moment for global trade amid geopolitical shifts and rising demand for eco-friendly transport alternatives to air and sea shipping.

Why the China-Europe Railway Express Matters in 2025

The China-Europe Railway Express, operational since 2011, has revolutionized cross-continental cargo movement. Trains now zip from cities like Chongqing and Chengdu to European hubs such as Duisburg and Madrid in just 12-15 days—half the time of maritime routes. Last year alone, over 17,000 trains carried 1.7 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), underscoring its role in resilient global supply chains.

Hosted in Xi’an—the historic starting point of the ancient Silk Road—this forum builds on the inaugural 2023 event in Lianyungang, which drew 500+ delegates and sparked collaborations worth billions. Under the theme “Connecting Asia and Europe for a Shared Future”, expect deep dives into:

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  • Enhancing safety and efficiency: Strategies for “bulletproof” rail systems amid increasing volumes.
  • Expanding trade corridors: New routes through Central Asia, the Middle East, and beyond to diversify beyond traditional paths.
  • Green innovation in logistics: Low-carbon tech, electric locomotives, and digital twins for sustainable BRI growth.

Agenda Highlights: What to Expect at the Xi’an Forum

The three-day extravaganza kicks off with a star-studded opening ceremony featuring speeches from NDRC officials, EU transport ministers, and BRI partners. Parallel sessions will ignite discussions on:

  • Ultra-Efficient Transport Systems: Exploring AI-driven scheduling, automated customs clearance, and high-speed upgrades to handle 2 million+ TEUs annually by 2030.
  • Diverse Trade Corridors: Mapping untapped routes like the New Eurasian Land Bridge, with spotlights on Kazakhstan, Poland, and emerging African extensions.
  • Integrated Development Breakthroughs: From blockchain for secure tracking to renewable energy powering rail hubs—unlocking $100B+ in BRI investments.

Live demos, B2B matchmaking, and networking galas will connect freight forwarders, policymakers, and tech innovators. Past attendees rave about tangible outcomes, like the 2023 forum’s MoUs that boosted rail freight by 15% on key lines.

Key Forum StatsDetails
DateNovember 18-20, 2025
LocationXi’an International Convention Center, Shaanxi Province
Expected Attendees800+ from 50+ countries
Focus AreasRail Safety, New Corridors, Green Tech
Predecessor Success2023 Lianyungang event: 500 delegates, 20+ partnerships

Xi’an: Where History Meets High-Speed Future

As Shaanxi’s capital and UNESCO World Heritage site, Xi’an blends Terra Cotta Warriors grandeur with modern rail prowess. Home to the Xi’an Dry Port—handling 1M+ TEUs yearly—it’s a natural fit for this Belt and Road milestone. Visitors can tour the Silk Road Museum post-forum, tying ancient trade vibes to today’s China-Europe freight revolution.

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Join the Momentum: Register Now for the China-Europe Railway Forum

Whether you’re a logistics exec eyeing Eurasian rail opportunities or a policy wonk passionate about sustainable BRI projects, secure your spot via the official NDRC portal. Early bird registration closes November 15—don’t miss riding the rails to a connected tomorrow!

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For more on China-Europe trade trends, Belt and Road updates, or global logistics news, subscribe to our newsletter. Share your thoughts: How will this forum shape international freight in 2026? Comment below!

Sources: NDRC Press Release, Belt and Road Portal. Images: Courtesy of Xi’an Convention Bureau (alt: “High-speed freight train on China-Europe Railway Express route”).

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Trump-Xi Truce Won’t Save the Dollar from the Yuan

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A temporary handshake in Busan cannot disguise the deeper structural erosion of dollar dominance and the steady, deliberate rise of the yuan.

When Donald Trump and Xi Jinping emerged from their October summit in Busan, markets reacted with the usual mix of relief and scepticism. Gold ticked up 1.2%, Asian equities softened, and U.S. futures wobbled—hardly the euphoric rally one might expect from what Trump called “a 12 out of 10” meeting. The deal, which paused Chinese rare-earth export controls and promised renewed soybean purchases, was hailed as a “historic truce” by the White House. Yet the muted market response told a deeper truth: investors know that this is theater, not transformation.

The core thesis is simple: this truce does nothing to alter the structural trajectory of global finance. The dollar’s dominance is eroding under the weight of U.S. fiscal excess and its own weaponization, while the yuan’s internationalisation—though gradual—is accelerating. The world is not waiting for Washington or Beijing to declare peace; it is already moving toward a multipolar currency order.

1: The ‘Trucified’ Mirage

The Busan agreement was transactional diplomacy at its most transparent. China agreed to suspend rare-earth export controls for a year, resume large-scale agricultural imports, and ease pressure on U.S. semiconductor firms. In return, Washington halved certain tariffs and promised to “re-engage” on technology licensing. Both sides declared victory, but the underlying rivalry remains untouched.

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This is not the first time markets have been asked to celebrate a ceasefire in the U.S.-China economic war. Recall the “Phase One” deal of 2020, which promised massive Chinese purchases of U.S. goods that never fully materialised. The pattern is familiar: temporary concessions, symbolic gestures, and a brief pause in escalation. What is never addressed are the structural drivers of conflict—China’s ambition to dominate advanced technologies, Washington’s bipartisan consensus on decoupling, and the geopolitical competition stretching from the South China Sea to Africa.

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The truce is a mirage because it assumes that transactional fixes can mask strategic divergence. They cannot. The U.S. is not going to stop restricting Chinese access to advanced chips, nor will Beijing abandon its push for technological self-sufficiency. Investors who mistake this truce for stability are ignoring the tectonic forces at play. The rivalry is permanent; the truce is temporary.

2: The Dollar’s Self-Inflicted Wounds

If the yuan is rising, it is not only because of Beijing’s ambition but also because of Washington’s missteps. Two structural risks stand out: fiscal profligacy and the weaponisation of the dollar.

First, the fiscal picture. U.S. federal debt has surged to over $36 trillion in 2025, according to the St. Louis Fed, up from roughly $18 trillion a decade ago. Debt-to-GDP now hovers near 125%, levels typically associated with emerging markets in crisis rather than the world’s reserve currency issuer. Investors may tolerate high debt for a time, but persistent deficits erode confidence in the dollar’s long-term purchasing power.

Second, the weaponization of the dollar has accelerated since 2014, when sanctions on Russia highlighted the risks of overreliance on the greenback. The freezing of Russian central bank reserves in 2022 was a watershed moment. Allies and adversaries alike saw that dollar assets could be rendered unusable overnight if Washington disapproved of their policies. This has spurred diversification.

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The data is clear: the dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has slipped from 66% in 2015 to around 58% in 2025, according to IMF data. That decline may look modest, but in a $12 trillion reserve universe, it represents hundreds of billions shifting into euros, yen, gold, and increasingly, yuan.

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The irony is that Washington’s own policies—fiscal recklessness and sanctions overreach—are accelerating the very de-dollarisation it fears. The dollar is not collapsing, but its aura of invincibility is fading.

3: The Yuan’s Quiet Ascent

While Washington undermines its own currency, Beijing is methodically building the yuan’s global footprint. This is not a frontal assault on dollar hegemony but a patient campaign of incremental gains.

Consider trade settlement. According to DW, nearly one-third of China’s $6.2 trillion trade in 2025 is now settled in yuan, up from just 20% in 2022. This shift is particularly pronounced in energy: Chinese refiners are increasingly paying for Russian oil and Middle Eastern gas in yuan, bypassing the dollar entirely.

Financial infrastructure is another front. The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), Beijing’s alternative to SWIFT, now processes trillions in annual transactions. While still smaller than SWIFT, it provides a sanctions-proof channel for yuan payments. At the same time, the digital yuan is being piloted in cross-border settlements, offering a programmable, state-backed alternative to dollar clearing.

Foreign holdings of yuan assets are also climbing. SWIFT data shows the yuan recently overtook the Japanese yen to become the fourth most-used currency in global payments, with a record 4.6% share. That may seem small compared to the dollar’s 40%+ share, but the trajectory is unmistakable.

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The constraint, of course, remains China’s capital account controls. Beijing is unwilling to fully liberalize for fear of destabilizing capital flight. Yet even within these limits, yuan internationalization is advancing. Currency swaps with over 40 central banks, commodity contracts priced in yuan, and the steady rise of yuan-denominated bonds in Hong Kong all point to a currency whose global role is expanding, not retreating.

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The yuan will not replace the dollar tomorrow. But its ascent is relentless—and irreversible.

4: The Path to a Multipolar Currency World

The real story is not a binary contest between dollar and yuan but the emergence of a multipolar currency system. The euro remains a formidable reserve currency, accounting for roughly 20% of global reserves. Emerging markets are increasingly settling trade in local currencies, while BRICS+ nations are openly discussing alternatives to the dollar in energy trade. The yuan is the most dynamic challenger, but it is part of a broader trend: the fragmentation of global finance into overlapping blocs. The unipolar dollar era is ending; the multipolar era is beginning.

Conclusion

The Trump-Xi truce is a headline, not a turning point. The forces reshaping global finance are structural, not cyclical. America’s debt addiction and sanctions diplomacy are eroding trust in the dollar, while China’s deliberate yuan strategy is bearing fruit. The result will not be a sudden dethronement but a gradual rebalancing toward a multipolar currency world.

Policymakers in Washington may celebrate temporary truces, but investors should look past the photo ops. The dollar’s dominance is no longer guaranteed. The yuan’s rise is not a question of if, but how fast.

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China’s Booming EV Market in 2025: Unpacking Explosive Growth, Leadership, and Future Prospects

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China’s electric vehicle (EV) market is witnessing an unprecedented surge in 2025, positioning the country as the global leader in new energy vehicle (NEV) adoption and innovation. Recent data shows remarkable trends that highlight China’s rapid growth in this sector, promising an exciting future for EVs domestically and internationally.

Robust Growth in NEV Sales

In the first half of 2025 alone, China’s passenger vehicle sales climbed to approximately 10.9 million units, marking a solid 10.7% year-over-year increase. This growth is overwhelmingly driven by New Energy Vehicles, which surged 33% to about 5.46 million units sold. Notably, traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales declined by 5.2% during the same period. This shift underscores a transforming market, where NEVs now make up more than half—50.1%—of the passenger vehicle market, surpassing conventional cars for the first time.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) lead this charge, experiencing a 37.6% sales increase to 3.33 million units, outpacing plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), which grew 26.5%. BEVs now command 61% of NEV sales, a trend illustrating a clear preference for fully electric transport solutions in the Chinese market.

China’s Market Leadership and Export Expansion

China is not just dominating its own EV market but also making a significant impact globally. In 2025, Chinese EV manufacturers exported vehicles to over 200 countries, generating nearly $48 billion in revenue. Europe remains the primary destination, accounting for about half of all exports, with emerging markets in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa rapidly increasing their adoption of Chinese-made EVs. Exports to Africa grew by an astonishing 184% year-over-year, showcasing the expanding global footprint of China’s EV industry.

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Government Policies and Industry Evolution

China’s government has played a vital role in nurturing the EV boom, initially through subsidies and purchase incentives that spurred mass adoption. However, 2025 marks a strategic turning point. The government has signaled the end of direct subsidies and omitted EVs from the list of key strategic industries in the latest five-year development plan (2026-2030). This move reflects confidence in the sector’s maturity and readiness to compete without heavy-handed support, shifting towards market-driven growth and international competitiveness. While these changes may induce some industry restructuring, they also present opportunities for innovation and consolidation among leading manufacturers.

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Future Prospects and Challenges

Looking ahead, the Chinese EV market is poised for exponential growth, underpinned by continuous technological advancements and increasing consumer acceptance. The full-year forecast for 2025 estimates NEV sales to reach around 15.5 million vehicles, accounting for nearly half of all passenger vehicles sold.

Nonetheless, challenges remain. The industry must navigate reduced government subsidies, rising competition, and the need to sustain export momentum amid global trade tensions. Additionally, transitioning from plug-in hybrids to pure battery electric vehicles will require sustained innovation, especially in battery technology and infrastructure development.

Conclusion

China’s EV market is a compelling story of transformation and leadership. With NEV sales surpassing half of the domestic market and exports penetrating every major global region, China is reshaping the automotive landscape. As subsidies fade, the strength of this sector will increasingly depend on innovation, consumer demand, and its ability to adapt to global market dynamics. For anyone observing the future of transportation, China’s journey is a vivid example of exponential growth driven by vision, policy, and technological progress—all unfolding in real time.

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This dynamic market evolution not only sets the tone for global EV trends but also paves the way for a cleaner, electrified future powered by innovation and sustainable mobility.

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