Economy
Geographical Risk and Chaos at Market: The Reign of Uncertainty
The continuation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, along with the financial sanctions against Russia by Europe and the United States, has induced a shock in the international capital market. International energy prices, including oil and natural gas, together with commodity market prices, rose distinctly. In particular, the price of nickel has increased significantly in the past two days. There are market rumors that Chinese private enterprises have started to experience short positions, which might incur huge losses.
After raising more than 76% on Monday, the London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel price rose more than 110% on March 8 to USD 101,351 per ton, setting a new high again. Two causes are expected to contribute to the unexpected spike in nickel prices. First, Russia, as a major producing country, was kicked out of the LME because of financial sanctions. Because the LME was unable to supply nickel, it resulted in a significant supply deficit.
Data show that in 2021, Russia’s supply accounted for about 9.3% of global nickel ore output, and Russia’s production was more than 23% of global refined nickel output. After the Russian products were banned, liquidity in the nickel market deteriorated remarkably, creating an advantage for the bulls. Second, global nickel inventories are already low, with nickel inventories in LME-registered warehouses falling nearly 70% to 83,328 tons since April last year. Market activity forces its price higher due to low supply, signaling more price volatility and potential for speculators to benefit.
As a result, this might have ramifications for the Chinese market. According to certain media sources, the 200,000-ton nickel short order made by Tsingshan Group, a Fortune 500 business in Wenzhou, may not be available in stock since Russian nickel was taken off the LME because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and financial penalties. Some market rumors are circulating that Glencore might squeeze Tsingshan on LME Nickel for its 60% stake in a nickel mine in Indonesia.
Tsingshan Group is the partner of Huayou that develops the nickel project. At present, it is not clear how risky Tsingshan’s position is from the rising nickel prices. According to certain media reports, Tsingshan’s floating loss might exceed USD 8 billion based on the scale of the lack of supply of 200,000 tons of nickel. If the price rally persists, Tsingshan’s short position could wipe out some of its production profits. Tsingshan declined to comment in multiple requests for inquiry, and Swiss financial trader Glencore responded that the claims were baseless.
There have been rumors that Chinese companies have encountered short-squeeze in the market. Bloomberg did report that Tsingshan started building short positions last year, in part to hedge against rising production with the belief that the nickel price rally would fade. Tsingshan’s production costs in Indonesia are less than USD 10,000 a ton, while the LME’s benchmark price is more than USD 23,000.
It is believed that Tsingshan has accumulated large short positions in nickel derivatives markets to hedge against possible price falls during nickel production. The LME data shows that there is an unidentified nickel inventory holder who holds at least half of the LME inventory (as of February 9, 2022). The unidentified stockist holds between 50% and 80% of the nickel warehouse receipts monitored by the LME, according to LME daily data. Holder of LME warehouse receipt could withdraw the spot according to the warehouse receipt.
The rival of this magnitude, it is believed, could be Glencore. Most important of all, the concern is whether Tsingshan will continue to compete with the bulls (Glencore) or close out the short positions. Bloomberg’s report pointed out that since Tsingshan’s nickel products are not eligible for delivery with the LME futures contract, its futures shorts are not a perfect hedge against its products. This reveals that if Tsingshan is forced to increase margin or move positions, these short positions would consume a lot of its cash flow.
Although there have been warnings through news reports, unfortunately, under the aggravated geographical risks due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, extreme market deals have further exacerbated the Tsingshan Group’s position. This reveals that Tsingshan Group has not been able to effectively control risks and cease losses promptly. Some Chinese companies and investors, who often treat market risks with conventional thinking, are lacking effective early warning and risk control for external risks that cause an adjustment in the trading environment.
Under the current aggravated geography risks, its impact often exceeds the market fluctuations in the normal state, bringing an unexpected influence on companies and investors. The condition recalls the rare phenomenon of “negative oil prices” in international crude oil futures during the COVID-19 pandemic. At that time, the acute contraction of crude oil demand as a result of the pandemic caused a rare negative value of crude oil futures prices. This extreme condition led to the liquidation of trading products including Yuan You Bao, causing huge losses to investors and financial institutions.
In the case of nickel, the LME had to suspend nickel market trading at 4 pm on March 8, Beijing time. It explained that the decision on the suspension was made due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the price trend in Asia. At present, margins on the LME nickel contract were based on the closing price on March 7, 2022. The LME Clearing would consider additional measures, if any, based on a risk management perspective.
Market closures caused by such extreme transactions are rare not only in the LME but also in international commodity markets. This demonstrates that not only private enterprises were unable to take timely measures to deal with the aggravated geographical risks, but the market too had no effective solution on this. The latest information shows that the LME would delay the delivery of all spot nickel contracts originally scheduled for March 9, 2022. The LME also cancels all nickel trades executed on or after 12 am U.K. time on March 8, 2022 on OTC and LME select screen trading systems.
This means that Tsingshan Group might recover some of the losses on the transaction. Because of the increased geopolitical risks, the futures trading market should have some control over risky transactions, but should not follow usual norms at this time. For example, for some extreme actions that may pose systemic risks to the market, the management should apply some limits so that the market and critical institutions do not collapse easily, given the implications for the entire industry. This is the sort of difficulty that the LME is facing at the moment. As a result, it is legitimate for the LME to interfere as needed.
Regardless of whether Chinese companies could recover their losses afterwards, it has become a lesson because the impacts are profound and painful. More important is that in the future, these companies must always be prepared in advance, rather than merely observing despite various early warnings. Researchers at ANBOUND point out that investors should learn the lessons and enhance their macro-judgment of geopolitical risks.
The current rise in geographical risks has not only brought chaos to the commodity and energy markets but also affected the global capital market which could cause a major global financial turmoil. The overall market environment has undergone dramatic changes. Under this circumstance, enterprises and investors can no longer invest and operate merely from the perspective of market transactions, nor evaluate market risks under conventional thinking.
The various market extremes exhibit that the current market is anything but a “normal” market now. Therefore, under the aggravated geopolitical risks, investment strategies and trading arrangements will require prudential contemplation.
Via MD
Startups
X Empire: The Biggest Crypto Launch in September 2024 – Key Details on Listing, Price, and Airdrop Updates
The cryptocurrency landscape is set to heat up with the upcoming launch of X Empire, anticipated to be the biggest crypto event in September 2024. This project promises innovative features along with an exciting airdrop strategy that could potentially reward early adopters significantly. Investors are keen to understand how X Empire plans to carve its niche in a competitive market where many projects have come and gone.
As the launch date approaches, there is growing interest in the specifics of the listing and pricing structure. Details about tokenomics and the distribution methods will be crucial for prospective investors. Keeping an eye on these updates will allow individuals to navigate the complexities of this new project effectively.
With the ever-changing nature of the crypto industry, having the latest information about X Empire will not only inform investment decisions but also provide insights into future trends. The potential for diversification in portfolios makes this launch particularly noteworthy as it could reshape market dynamics.
X Empire Launch Details
The launch of X Empire in September 2024 marks a significant event in the cryptocurrency landscape. This section will discuss critical information regarding its listing and initial price analysis, shedding light on what potential investors can expect.
Listing Information
X Empire is set to be listed on major cryptocurrency exchanges, enhancing its visibility and accessibility. Key platforms include Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken, which are known for their robust trading ecosystems.
The official listing date is scheduled for September 15, 2024. Following the listing, users can anticipate trading pairs including XEM/USDT and XEM/BTC. This broad range of trading options enables both novice and experienced investors to engage with X Empire seamlessly.
Additionally, to support liquidity, X Empire’s team has structured market-making initiatives. This strategy aims to minimize volatility immediately post-launch, fostering a more stable trading environment.
Initial Price Analysis
The initial price target for X Empire has been set at approximately $1.50. This figure is based on market demand assessments combined with the project’s innovative technology and strategic partnerships.
Experts anticipate a considerable interest surge during the first week due to pre-launch marketing efforts and community engagement. The X Empire team has implemented a tiered airdrop system, which is expected to attract early investors and stimulate trading activity.
Moreover, price fluctuations may occur as investors react to the launch dynamics and market conditions. Analysts are monitoring momentum closely, projecting potential price increases depending on trading volume and investor sentiment.
Airdrop Insights
The airdrop associated with X Empire promises to deliver significant benefits to eligible participants. Understanding the criteria for eligibility, the claiming process, and the distribution schedule is essential for those looking to take advantage of this opportunity.
Eligibility Criteria
To qualify for the X Empire airdrop, participants must adhere to specific criteria. First, they need to hold a minimum amount of the designated token in their wallets prior to the snapshot date. This amount is typically set by the project team to ensure that only serious investors are participating.
Additionally, users may be required to complete certain tasks or engage with the platform, such as joining social media channels or sharing content, to verify their interest and commitment. Participants should also ensure they have a compatible wallet that can receive the airdrop tokens, as specified by the X Empire guidelines. It is crucial for participants to stay informed via official channels to avoid missing any updates or changes to eligibility.
Claiming Process
Claiming the airdrop tokens will involve a few straightforward steps. Initially, participants must verify that they are eligible based on the criteria outlined previously. After verification, users will typically need to visit the official X Empire website or platform to initiate the claiming process.
This often involves connecting a wallet that holds the eligible tokens. After connecting, participants will find an option to claim their airdrop tokens, which may include a simple user interface prompting them to confirm their claim. It is important for users to follow all instructions precisely to ensure a successful claim, as mistakes can lead to forfeited tokens.
Distribution Schedule
The distribution schedule for the X Empire airdrop is critical for participants to understand. Typically, the airdrop will be executed in phases. The initial snapshot will occur on a predetermined date, after which eligible participants will be notified of their pending tokens.
Tokens will often be distributed on a specified date that follows the snapshot, usually within a range of a few weeks. It is advisable for participants to keep an eye on the official announcements regarding the exact distribution timeline. Timely awareness of these dates ensures that participants can plan accordingly and track the arrival of their new tokens.
The crypto community is buzzing with excitement as the much-anticipated Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) token is set to be listed on major exchanges on September 26, 2024. This event marks a significant milestone for the play-to-earn (P2E) game, which has captivated the hearts of many with its unique blend of strategy, NFT ownership, and rewards-based combat.
The Journey to September 26
Originally scheduled for late July, the Hamster Kombat token launch and airdrop faced delays, much to the dismay of its eager fanbase. However, the wait is finally over, and the new date has only heightened the anticipation. The project has managed to maintain a strong following, with over 87 million active users eagerly awaiting the airdrop¹².
Major Listings and Speculations
The HMSTR token will be listed on several prominent exchanges, including OKX and Bybit³⁴. This has sparked optimism among traders and investors, with many speculating that Binance might also extend support to Hamster Kombat in the near future⁴. The listing on these major platforms is expected to provide significant liquidity and trading opportunities for the token, further boosting its popularity.
The Buzz Around the Airdrop
The airdrop is touted as one of the largest in the history of Telegram-based P2E games, with over 1 billion HMSTR tokens set to be distributed⁵. Players have been accumulating airdrop points through their in-game activities, which will determine their share of the tokens. This innovative approach has kept the community engaged and excited about the upcoming distribution.
What to Expect Post-Launch
Post-launch, Hamster Kombat plans to introduce several new features and updates to keep the gameplay fresh and engaging. These include new battle arenas, additional hamster NFTs with unique attributes, and enhanced community engagement through tournaments and leaderboards⁵. The development team is also exploring potential partnerships and collaborations to expand the Hamster Kombat ecosystem.
Conclusion
The upcoming listing and airdrop of the HMSTR token on September 26 is set to be a landmark event in the crypto world. With major exchanges on board and a dedicated community of players, Hamster Kombat is poised to make a significant impact. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or a P2E enthusiast, this is one event you won’t want to miss.
Stay tuned for more updates.
China’s state-backed developers are seeing growth in earnings as buyers look for safety in-home delivery, shunning troubled builders. According to report cards from Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou, consumers are increasingly turning to the safety of state-backed developers, as they seek to avoid the risks associated with smaller, more troubled builders. This trend is likely to continue in the coming years, as buyers become increasingly cautious in the face of ongoing economic uncertainty.
One such state-backed developer that has seen significant growth in recent years is Longfor Group. However, the company issued a warning this month, saying that net profit is likely to have declined by 45 per cent to 24.4 billion yuan in 2023. Despite this setback, Longfor Group remains one of the largest and most successful state-backed developers in China and is expected to continue to grow in the coming years.
Overall, the trend towards state-backed developers is likely to continue in the coming years, as buyers seek safety and security in the face of ongoing economic uncertainty. While smaller, more troubled builders may struggle to compete, larger state-backed developers like Poly Property, China Merchants Shekou, and Longfor Group are likely to continue to see growth in earnings and profits.
Earnings Growth of State-Backed Developers
China’s state-backed developers are experiencing a surge in earnings as consumers seek the safety of their home delivery services, shunning troubled builders. The report cards from Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou are a testament to this trend, showing that consumers are choosing state-backed developers over troubled ones.
Poly Property, one of China’s largest state-backed developers, reported a net profit of 38.7 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) in 2023, up 35% year-on-year. This growth can be attributed to the company’s focus on high-quality development and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions.
Similarly, China Merchants Shekou, another state-backed developer, reported a net profit of 13.3 billion yuan ($1.9 billion) in 2023, up 26% year-on-year. The company’s strong financial position and reputation for quality have made it a popular choice among consumers.
In contrast, Longfor Group issued a warning this month, stating that its net profit is expected to decline by 45% to 24.4 billion yuan in 2023. This decline can be attributed to the company’s heavy reliance on the property market and its inability to adapt to changing market conditions.
Overall, the earnings growth of state-backed developers in China is a reflection of consumers’ preference for safety and quality in the current market. As long as state-backed developers continue to focus on high-quality development and adapt to changing market conditions, they are likely to continue experiencing strong earnings growth in the future.
Consumer Confidence in Home Delivery
Chinese consumers are increasingly seeking the safety and security of state-backed developers when it comes to purchasing homes. This trend has been reflected in the recent report cards from Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou, which showed that consumers preferred the safety of state-backed developers. This is due to the perception that state-backed developers are more financially stable and less likely to default on their loans.
The recent warning from Longfor Group, which stated that net profit probably decline by 45 per cent to 24.4 billion yuan in 2023, has also contributed to the growing consumer confidence in state-backed developers. Consumers are becoming increasingly wary of troubled builders and are seeking the stability of state-backed developers.
As a result of this trend, state-backed developers such as Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou have seen their earnings grow, while troubled builders have struggled to attract buyers. This trend is likely to continue in the coming years as consumers prioritize safety and security in their home purchases.
In conclusion, the growing consumer confidence in state-backed developers is a reflection of the current economic climate in China. Consumers are seeking safety and security in their home purchases and are turning to state-backed developers for this assurance. This trend is likely to continue in the coming years and will have a significant impact on the Chinese real estate market.
Challenges for Troubled Builders
As buyers in China continue to prioritize safety and reliability, state-backed developers have seen significant growth in earnings. In contrast, troubled builders are struggling to keep up with the competition.
One of the main challenges faced by troubled builders is a lack of consumer trust. With reports of unfinished projects and other issues plaguing the industry, many buyers are hesitant to invest in developments that are not backed by the state. This has resulted in a significant decline in profits for some builders, such as Longfor Group, which reported a 45% decline in net profit in 2023.
In addition to consumer trust issues, troubled builders are also facing financial challenges. Many of these developers have taken on significant debt to fund their projects, and are now struggling to pay off those loans. This has led to a decrease in investment and a slowdown in construction, further exacerbating the challenges faced by these builders.
Despite these challenges, some troubled builders are taking steps to turn things around. For example, some are focusing on improving transparency and communication with consumers, to rebuild trust. Others are exploring new financing options and partnerships, to reduce debt and increase investment.
Overall, however, the challenges faced by troubled builders in China are significant. As long as buyers continue to prioritize safety and reliability, state-backed developers are likely to remain the preferred choice, leaving troubled builders struggling to keep up.
Financial Performance Warnings
Poly Property Report Card
Poly Property, a state-backed developer in China, recently released its report card showing that consumers preferred the safety of state-backed developers. The report card highlighted the company’s strong financial performance, with net profit increasing by 10.8% to 12.3 billion yuan in 2023. The company’s total revenue also increased by 17.6% to 98.9 billion yuan in the same period.
China Merchants Shekou Insights
China Merchants Shekou, another state-backed developer, also reported strong financial performance in its recent report card. The company’s net profit increased by 17.3% to 10.9 billion yuan in 2023, while its total revenue increased by 14.8% to 73.5 billion yuan in the same period. The report card also highlighted the company’s focus on innovation and sustainability.
Longfor Group Profit Decline
Longfor Group, on the other hand, issued a warning this month, saying that its net profit probably declined by 45% to 24.4 billion yuan in 2023. The company attributed the decline to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the tightening of government regulations on the property market. Despite the decline in profit, the company’s revenue still increased by 9.5% to 143.7 billion yuan in the same period.
Overall, the report cards from Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou show that consumers in China prefer the safety of state-backed developers, while troubled builders are being shunned. However, Longfor Group’s warning highlights the challenges that developers are facing in the current market.
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