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Russia-2022: Macro Stability to Be Prioritized



In spite of the raging pandemic, the year 2021 would have posted strong gains if it were not for the escalation in geopolitical risks associated with Russia’s stand-off with Ukraine. This sharp increase in geopolitical uncertainty erased a significant part of the earlier gains posted in Russia’s stock market and raised the spectre of lingering fragilities and unease over the course of 2022. Indeed, a lot of the risks that are likely to feature in 2022 were amply revealed in the course of 2021 – including the energy crisis/shortages, further waves of the pandemic and changes in the tax regime.

Nevertheless, there may be important drivers for Russia’s markets in the coming year, with the overall macroeconomic backdrop expected to demonstrate decent growth and inflation declining starting from the second quarter. On the back of a moderation in inflationary pressures the CBR is likely to start lowering its key rate in the second half of next year, with the macroeconomic fundamentals likely allowing some fiscal expansion to support growth.

Overall, there is unlikely to be a significant economic policy shift in Russia away from prioritizing reserve accumulation and macroeconomic stability. In the second half of 2021 the Russian government ruled to raise the threshold for the National Wellbeing Fund from 7% of GDP to 10% of GDP – thus in effect raising the scope for accumulating reserves vs spending them. However, with the relatively high level of oil and gas prices the 10% of GDP threshold could be exceeded in 2023 in line with our current baseline oil price forecast. In this case the spending of these excess revenues to boost the economy could deliver an additional growth impulse.

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The reigning paradigm nonetheless will continue to favour macroeconomic stability, which likely means more rate increases in the beginning of next year from the CBR and continued adherence to tight fiscal policy. This is unlikely to change in favour of a pro-growth policy stance until a significant de-escalation of geopolitical risks takes place. The pandemic factor may yet again prove to be more persistent than expected and raise the need for support measures as has been the case during the new waves of the Covid pandemic this year.

Given the developments at the end of 2021, the balance of risks and drivers going in to next year appears to be tilted towards caution, with a drastic resolution in the geopolitical uncertainty unlikely in the very near term. Nonetheless, the may be a number of drivers that could lighten up Russia’s investment landscape next year, in particular:

  • Ongoing economic recovery
  • Lowering of the key rate and inflation in H2 2022
  • High commodity prices supporting exports, fiscal accounts and the rouble
  • Consumer confidence recovering after the blows during the pandemic period
  • Stabilization of geopolitical risks in case Russia and the West enter into a “negotiations mode”

Key risks in 2022 will include:

  • Escalation in tensions between Russia and Ukraine
  • Energy crisis and fuel shortages exacerbating geopolitical tensions
  • New waves of the pandemic
  • EM pressures on the back of increasing debt burdens
  • High inflation proving more resilient and triggering a more aggressive tightening by the Fed

The “black swans” of 2022 could come from the geopolitical domain, but also emerge on the back of such systemic vulnerabilities in the world economy as climate change, disruptions in energy supplies and the green transition. One of the factors that may accentuate systemic risks is the labour shortage factor – something that the world economy and Russia in particular are facing in areas such as cybersecurity, IT and health care.

In this respect, one of the trends that became pronounced in 2021 and that is unlikely to disappear in 2022 is labour shortage in some of the key sectors of Russia’s economy, most notably in the IT sector. Other sectors where labour was lacking in supply were construction, agriculture, transportation and other services affected by the reduction in the inflow of migrants from Russia’s “near abroad” during the pandemic. The labour deficit if it persists into 2022 is likely to start to deliver more palpable inflationary effects and negative impact on economic growth.

As for the plans of Russian households for 2022, it is noteworthy that 22% of those polled by “” service declared that they plan some IT training next year, with 8% already having completed additional IT training earlier and 46% ready to consider such training in the near future. The IT sector is considered by Russians to be one of the most attractive employers, with 33% of Russians pointing to high wage levels and 24% noting the high demand for labour in this sector. Overall, according to Hays, 56% of Russians are considering changing their job in the span of one year, while 66% of Russia’s employers are pointing to the lack of needed labour/specialists as one of the key difficulties in managing human resources. Headhunter, and other Russian headhunters are likely to continue to benefit in this environment.

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Unveiling China’s Diplomatic Strategy: How Funding Fuels Influence in the Global South




In the realm of international relations, China’s approach to diplomacy has been a subject of intrigue and analysis. With a keen focus on the Global South, Beijing’s strategic manoeuvring in merging funding with diplomacy has reshaped traditional power dynamics. This article delves into how China leverages financial resources to bolster its influence in regions like Latin America and Africa, shedding light on the implications of this approach.

1: The Evolution of China’s Diplomatic Strategy
China’s diplomatic strategy has undergone a significant evolution over the years, transitioning from a policy of non-interference to proactive engagement with developing nations. By intertwining funding initiatives with diplomatic efforts, Beijing has effectively positioned itself as a key player in shaping global discourse.

1.1: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
At the forefront of China’s diplomatic endeavors is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive infrastructure development project spanning multiple continents. Through the BRI, China extends financial support to countries in need of infrastructure development, fostering closer ties and enhancing its geopolitical influence.

1.2: South-South Cooperation
China’s engagement with the Global South is characterized by a commitment to South-South cooperation, emphasizing mutual benefit and shared development goals. By offering funding assistance without imposing political conditions, Beijing has cultivated strong partnerships with countries in Latin America and Africa.


2: Beijing’s Engagement with Latin America
Latin America has emerged as a key battleground for China’s diplomatic ambitions, with Beijing actively seeking to deepen economic and political ties with countries in the region. Through strategic investments and funding initiatives, China aims to solidify its position as a leading partner for Latin American nations.

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2.1: Economic Investments
China’s economic investments in Latin America have surged in recent years, encompassing sectors such as infrastructure, energy, and technology. By providing funding for critical projects, Beijing not only stimulates economic growth in the region but also strengthens its influence over key decision-making processes.

2.2: Political Alliances
In addition to economic investments, China has forged strategic political alliances with countries in Latin America, leveraging its financial resources to garner support on international issues. By aligning interests and offering funding assistance, Beijing cements its position as a trusted partner for regional governments.

3: China’s Engagement with Africa
Africa represents another focal point of China’s diplomatic outreach, with Beijing actively engaging with African nations through a combination of funding initiatives and strategic partnerships. By investing in key sectors and promoting cooperation, China seeks to enhance its presence on the African continent.

3.1: Infrastructure Development
China’s investments in infrastructure development across Africa have been instrumental in driving economic growth and connectivity within the region. Through initiatives like the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), Beijing channels funding towards critical projects that benefit both Chinese interests and African development goals.


3.2: Resource Diplomacy
Resource diplomacy plays a crucial role in China’s engagement with Africa, as Beijing seeks to secure access to vital resources through strategic partnerships with African nations. By offering funding for resource extraction projects and infrastructure development, China strengthens its foothold in key sectors like mining and energy.

China’s fusion of funding and diplomacy represents a nuanced approach to global engagement, one that prioritizes economic cooperation and mutual benefit. By strategically leveraging financial resources to build relationships with countries in the Global South, Beijing is positioning itself as a formidable player on the world stage. As we witness the unfolding dynamics of international relations, it becomes evident that China’s push to lead the Global South is not merely about funding projects but about shaping a new era of diplomatic influence.

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Rising from Adversity: Kharkiv’s Tech Start-Ups and the Art of Business Resilience in Ukraine



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In the bustling city of Kharkiv, Ukraine, a remarkable story of resilience and innovation is unfolding. Despite facing extreme disruption, the region’s tech start-ups have defied the odds, showcasing the indomitable spirit of Ukraine’s entrepreneurs and engineers. This article delves into the extraordinary journey of Kharkiv’s tech ecosystem, exploring how it has emerged as a testament to unwavering determination and adaptability in the face of adversity.


The city of Kharkiv has long been a hub of technological advancement and entrepreneurial fervour. Home to a burgeoning community of start-ups and tech companies, it has rapidly gained recognition as a hotbed of innovation in Ukraine. However, the region’s resilience has been put to the ultimate test in recent years, as it grappled with unprecedented challenges ranging from political unrest to armed conflict. Despite these adversities, Kharkiv’s tech start-ups have not only survived but thrived, offering invaluable lessons in business resilience.

The Genesis of Kharkiv’s Tech Ecosystem

To understand the remarkable resilience of Kharkiv’s tech start-ups, it is essential to delve into the origins of the region’s burgeoning ecosystem. The city’s rich legacy of academic excellence and scientific research laid the groundwork for a vibrant culture of innovation. With a strong emphasis on STEM education and a pool of talented engineers and developers, Kharkiv became an ideal breeding ground for tech entrepreneurship.


Navigating Adversity: The Impact of Political Unrest and Armed Conflict

The outbreak of political unrest and armed conflict in Ukraine cast a dark shadow over Kharkiv’s burgeoning tech scene. The region found itself grappling with economic instability, infrastructure disruptions, and an uncertain business environment. In the face of such formidable challenges, many would have expected Kharkiv’s tech start-ups to falter. However, what transpired was nothing short of extraordinary.

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Adaptability in Action: Pivoting Strategies and Innovation

Faced with extreme disruption, Kharkiv’s entrepreneurs and engineers demonstrated remarkable adaptability, swiftly pivoting their business strategies to navigate the tumultuous landscape. From embracing remote work models to diversifying their product offerings, these companies showcased an unparalleled ability to innovate in the face of adversity. The rapid adoption of cutting-edge technologies and agile development methodologies further underscored their commitment to staying ahead of the curve.

Forging Resilient Partnerships: Collaborative Ecosystem and Global Outreach


Central to Kharkiv’s resilience was the spirit of collaboration that permeated its tech ecosystem. Start-ups, established companies, academic institutions, and government agencies joined forces to provide mutual support and foster innovation. Furthermore, despite the challenging geopolitical climate, Kharkiv’s tech community actively pursued global partnerships and market opportunities, showcasing an unwavering commitment to growth and expansion.

The Human Element: Nurturing Talent and Well-Being

Amidst the chaos and uncertainty, Kharkiv’s tech leaders recognized the importance of prioritizing the well-being and professional development of their teams. Initiatives focused on mental health support, skill enhancement programs, and inclusive work cultures played a pivotal role in sustaining morale and driving productivity. The emphasis on nurturing talent underscored the human-centric approach that defines Kharkiv’s tech ecosystem.

Looking Ahead: Lessons in Business Resilience for a Global Audience

As Kharkiv’s tech start-ups continue to chart an inspiring path of recovery and growth, their journey offers invaluable insights for businesses worldwide. The principles of adaptability, collaboration, innovation, and human-centric leadership that have underpinned their success serve as a compelling blueprint for building resilience in the face of extreme disruption. By studying the experiences of Kharkiv’s entrepreneurs and engineers, organizations across the globe can glean actionable strategies to fortify their business resilience.



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In conclusion, Kharkiv’s tech start-ups have emerged as beacons of hope and inspiration in the face of unprecedented challenges. Their unwavering resilience, innovative spirit, and collaborative ethos have not only sustained their businesses but also propelled them towards new heights of success. As Ukraine’s entrepreneurs and engineers continue to defy adversity, their story stands as a testament to the transformative power of resilience in business. The world can undoubtedly draw profound lessons from Kharkiv’s remarkable journey—a journey that epitomizes the triumph of human ingenuity in the most trying times.

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The Looming Crisis: Bad Property Debt Exceeds Reserves at Largest US Banks




The commercial real estate market has been a significant contributor to the US economy, but it is now facing a looming crisis. The largest US banks are struggling to manage bad property debt, which has exceeded their reserves. Despite regulators highlighting the risks, loan loss provisions have thinned, leaving banks vulnerable to potential losses. In this article, we will explore the reasons behind this crisis, its potential impact on the economy, and what steps banks can take to mitigate the risks.

The Current State of the Commercial Real Estate Market

The commercial real estate market has been booming for the past decade, with low interest rates and a strong economy driving demand. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted this trend, leading to a decline in demand for office and retail spaces. This has resulted in a rise in vacancies and a drop in rental income, putting pressure on property owners and investors.

The Impact on Banks

Banks have been heavily invested in the commercial real estate market, with loans to property owners and investors accounting for a significant portion of their portfolios. However, the decline in demand has led to a rise in defaults and delinquencies, resulting in bad property debt. According to a report by the Federal Reserve, bad property debt at the largest US banks has exceeded their reserves, leaving them vulnerable to potential losses.


The Role of Loan Loss Provisions

Loan loss provisions are funds set aside by banks to cover potential losses from bad loans. However, in recent years, loan loss provisions have thinned, leaving banks with inadequate reserves to cover potential losses. This has been a concern for regulators, who have highlighted the risks of the commercial real estate market and urged banks to increase their reserves.

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The Potential Impact on the Economy

The commercial real estate market is a significant contributor to the US economy, and a crisis in this sector could have far-reaching consequences. A rise in defaults and delinquencies could lead to a decline in property values, resulting in a drop in investment and a rise in unemployment. This could, in turn, lead to a decline in consumer spending and a slowdown in economic growth.

Mitigating the Risks


To mitigate the risks, banks need to take a proactive approach. They need to increase their loan loss provisions to cover potential losses from bad property debt. They also need to work with property owners and investors to restructure loans and avoid defaults. Additionally, they need to diversify their portfolios and reduce their exposure to the commercial real estate market.

The commercial real estate market is facing a crisis, and the largest US banks are struggling to manage bad property debt. Loan loss provisions have thinned, leaving banks vulnerable to potential losses. This crisis could have far-reaching consequences for the US economy, but banks can take steps to mitigate the risks. By increasing their reserves, working with property owners and investors, and diversifying their portfolios, banks can avoid a potential catastrophe and ensure the stability of the US economy.

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