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Russia-Ukraine War and Its Impact on the Global Economic System

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The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will seriously affect the world economy in many ways. Changes in supply and demand in areas of energy and commodities will undoubtedly exacerbate global inflationary pressures.

The major sanctions on Russia include: removing Russian banks from the Swift messaging system established for international transactions; freezing the assets of Russian companies and oligarchs in western countries; and restricting the Russian central bank from using its $630 billion (£473 billion) of foreign reserves. In response to these moves, Russia has been placed by financial institutions to junk status. In other words, the Russian default is certain.

It is estimated that between the Bank of Russia and the private sector, Russia contributes roughly $1 trillion to liquid global wealth, of which about $300 billion is deployed in money markets. Sanctions have almost disturbed the $1 trillion balance sheet globally, which will contribute to inflation and commodity prices

Following sanctions, the big western companies like Apple, Audi, BMW, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Dell, Ford, Netflix, Nike, Nestle, and Renault have either exited the country or closed their stores and stopped sales. Since Russia is one of the major producers of some important base metals such as titanium, nickel, palladium, and aluminium, their prices are also expected to increase. This increase will affect global industries, especially the automotive industry. There will also be an increase in agricultural products’ prices because of the war. More than a quarter of world wheat is produced by Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, corn, barley, and rapeseed prices will increase.

Geopolitical fracture lines build slowly over time, making it tempting to delay tough strategic realignments. But once those lines fracture, it is often too late to do anything.

European banks, particularly in Austria, France and Italy, are affected badly due to sanctions on Russia. France and Italy’s banks each have outstanding claims of about US$25 billion on Russian debt, while Austrian banks had US$17.5 billion.

Since 2014, financial institutions in the US have been decreasing their interaction with Russian banks. Still, Citigroup has a small portion of $ 10 billion exposure in Russian banks.

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Ukraine is also on the verge of default. Ukraine’s $ 60 billion worth of bonds has also gone to junk status.

French banks BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole are the most exposed to Ukraine because of their local subsidiaries in the country. Societe Generale SA (SoCGen) and UniCredit the top EU banks, with the largest operations in Russia, are also among the most exposed to Russian debts. European, US and Japanese banks could face serious losses, potentially to the tune of US$150 billion.

Switzerland, Cyprus and the UK are the biggest destinations for Russian oligarchs seeking to store their cash overseas. Cyprus also attracts Russian wealth with golden passports. Financial institutions in these countries are all likely to lose business because of the sanctions. The share prices of UK banks Lloyds and NatWest are both down more than 10 per cent since the start of the invasion.

Apart from banks, the war is going to lead to substantial losses for many businesses with interests in Russia. Any companies that are owed money by Russian businesses are going to struggle to get repaid, given that the ruble is down 30 per cent and the Swift restrictions are going to make payments very difficult. US companies have about US$15 billion of exposure to Russia. Many of these debts will potentially end up being written off, causing serious losses.

Some oil companies like Shell and BP have decided to offload assets that they own in Russia. Others such as trading and mining group Glencore, which has significant stakes in two Russia-linked companies, Rosneft and En+ Group, are reviewing their investment status. But if the value of these assets evaporates because there are no buyers at sensible prices, companies like these could be looking at substantial write-downs.

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this means that international capital is seeking new safe-haven, bringing incremental international capital to China’s domestic capital market, making China’s financial market one of the beneficiaries of the crisis. However, China’s ability to maintain the stability of its surrounding environment remains a major consideration for international capital flows in the face of growing geopolitical competition and conflict.

The economic and financial sanctions imposed by the US and Europe will exacerbate Russia’s recession. Nonetheless, Russia can still utilize its energy resources for its geopolitical interest. Russia is said to have substantially raised natural gas prices. European natural gas prices have soared by 41 per cent. In addition, nearly 35 per cent of palladium, an important element used in the US semiconductor industry, was imported from Russia. Once Russia stops supplying palladium to the United States, the shortage of chips in the US will be exacerbated. At the same time, 90 per cent of neon, another element used in the US semiconductor industry, was imported from Ukraine. A sharp increase in the price of neon as a result of the war could also have some impact on the US semiconductor industry. Some market institutions have analyzed that crude oil prices may once again exceed the USD 140 mark, which will benefit Russia, a major energy exporter, enough to compensate for the losses caused by rising financial settlement costs. Russia has great exposure to the UK, and as the result of the conflict, it is expected that the impact on the UK could be to reduce GDP growth by around 0.8 per cent to 4.0 per cent in 2022 and 0.5 per cent in 2023. The UK draws most of its gas imports from Norway and produces a sizeable chunk of its own gas needs, so interruptions in supply would be less likely, but it would suffer from higher wholesale gas prices.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has become an economic skirmish as much as it is a geopolitical war.

As geopolitical conflict intensifies, this change will have implications for the long-term evolution of global financial capital markets. Geopolitical fracture lines build slowly over time, making it tempting to delay tough strategic realignments, but once those lines fracture, it is often too late to do anything but react. The Russia-Ukraine war is a warning that how suddenly geopolitical motion can accelerate. Businesses should consider their risk exposures carefully. These recent events should raise the premium for home market strength and increase the discount for far-afield holdings.

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China

Unveiling China’s Diplomatic Strategy: How Funding Fuels Influence in the Global South

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Introduction

In the realm of international relations, China’s approach to diplomacy has been a subject of intrigue and analysis. With a keen focus on the Global South, Beijing’s strategic manoeuvring in merging funding with diplomacy has reshaped traditional power dynamics. This article delves into how China leverages financial resources to bolster its influence in regions like Latin America and Africa, shedding light on the implications of this approach.

1: The Evolution of China’s Diplomatic Strategy
China’s diplomatic strategy has undergone a significant evolution over the years, transitioning from a policy of non-interference to proactive engagement with developing nations. By intertwining funding initiatives with diplomatic efforts, Beijing has effectively positioned itself as a key player in shaping global discourse.

1.1: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
At the forefront of China’s diplomatic endeavors is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive infrastructure development project spanning multiple continents. Through the BRI, China extends financial support to countries in need of infrastructure development, fostering closer ties and enhancing its geopolitical influence.

1.2: South-South Cooperation
China’s engagement with the Global South is characterized by a commitment to South-South cooperation, emphasizing mutual benefit and shared development goals. By offering funding assistance without imposing political conditions, Beijing has cultivated strong partnerships with countries in Latin America and Africa.

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2: Beijing’s Engagement with Latin America
Latin America has emerged as a key battleground for China’s diplomatic ambitions, with Beijing actively seeking to deepen economic and political ties with countries in the region. Through strategic investments and funding initiatives, China aims to solidify its position as a leading partner for Latin American nations.

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2.1: Economic Investments
China’s economic investments in Latin America have surged in recent years, encompassing sectors such as infrastructure, energy, and technology. By providing funding for critical projects, Beijing not only stimulates economic growth in the region but also strengthens its influence over key decision-making processes.

2.2: Political Alliances
In addition to economic investments, China has forged strategic political alliances with countries in Latin America, leveraging its financial resources to garner support on international issues. By aligning interests and offering funding assistance, Beijing cements its position as a trusted partner for regional governments.

3: China’s Engagement with Africa
Africa represents another focal point of China’s diplomatic outreach, with Beijing actively engaging with African nations through a combination of funding initiatives and strategic partnerships. By investing in key sectors and promoting cooperation, China seeks to enhance its presence on the African continent.

3.1: Infrastructure Development
China’s investments in infrastructure development across Africa have been instrumental in driving economic growth and connectivity within the region. Through initiatives like the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), Beijing channels funding towards critical projects that benefit both Chinese interests and African development goals.

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3.2: Resource Diplomacy
Resource diplomacy plays a crucial role in China’s engagement with Africa, as Beijing seeks to secure access to vital resources through strategic partnerships with African nations. By offering funding for resource extraction projects and infrastructure development, China strengthens its foothold in key sectors like mining and energy.

Conclusion:
China’s fusion of funding and diplomacy represents a nuanced approach to global engagement, one that prioritizes economic cooperation and mutual benefit. By strategically leveraging financial resources to build relationships with countries in the Global South, Beijing is positioning itself as a formidable player on the world stage. As we witness the unfolding dynamics of international relations, it becomes evident that China’s push to lead the Global South is not merely about funding projects but about shaping a new era of diplomatic influence.

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Startups

Rising from Adversity: Kharkiv’s Tech Start-Ups and the Art of Business Resilience in Ukraine

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In the bustling city of Kharkiv, Ukraine, a remarkable story of resilience and innovation is unfolding. Despite facing extreme disruption, the region’s tech start-ups have defied the odds, showcasing the indomitable spirit of Ukraine’s entrepreneurs and engineers. This article delves into the extraordinary journey of Kharkiv’s tech ecosystem, exploring how it has emerged as a testament to unwavering determination and adaptability in the face of adversity.

Introduction

The city of Kharkiv has long been a hub of technological advancement and entrepreneurial fervour. Home to a burgeoning community of start-ups and tech companies, it has rapidly gained recognition as a hotbed of innovation in Ukraine. However, the region’s resilience has been put to the ultimate test in recent years, as it grappled with unprecedented challenges ranging from political unrest to armed conflict. Despite these adversities, Kharkiv’s tech start-ups have not only survived but thrived, offering invaluable lessons in business resilience.

The Genesis of Kharkiv’s Tech Ecosystem

To understand the remarkable resilience of Kharkiv’s tech start-ups, it is essential to delve into the origins of the region’s burgeoning ecosystem. The city’s rich legacy of academic excellence and scientific research laid the groundwork for a vibrant culture of innovation. With a strong emphasis on STEM education and a pool of talented engineers and developers, Kharkiv became an ideal breeding ground for tech entrepreneurship.

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Navigating Adversity: The Impact of Political Unrest and Armed Conflict

The outbreak of political unrest and armed conflict in Ukraine cast a dark shadow over Kharkiv’s burgeoning tech scene. The region found itself grappling with economic instability, infrastructure disruptions, and an uncertain business environment. In the face of such formidable challenges, many would have expected Kharkiv’s tech start-ups to falter. However, what transpired was nothing short of extraordinary.

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Adaptability in Action: Pivoting Strategies and Innovation

Faced with extreme disruption, Kharkiv’s entrepreneurs and engineers demonstrated remarkable adaptability, swiftly pivoting their business strategies to navigate the tumultuous landscape. From embracing remote work models to diversifying their product offerings, these companies showcased an unparalleled ability to innovate in the face of adversity. The rapid adoption of cutting-edge technologies and agile development methodologies further underscored their commitment to staying ahead of the curve.

Forging Resilient Partnerships: Collaborative Ecosystem and Global Outreach

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Central to Kharkiv’s resilience was the spirit of collaboration that permeated its tech ecosystem. Start-ups, established companies, academic institutions, and government agencies joined forces to provide mutual support and foster innovation. Furthermore, despite the challenging geopolitical climate, Kharkiv’s tech community actively pursued global partnerships and market opportunities, showcasing an unwavering commitment to growth and expansion.

The Human Element: Nurturing Talent and Well-Being

Amidst the chaos and uncertainty, Kharkiv’s tech leaders recognized the importance of prioritizing the well-being and professional development of their teams. Initiatives focused on mental health support, skill enhancement programs, and inclusive work cultures played a pivotal role in sustaining morale and driving productivity. The emphasis on nurturing talent underscored the human-centric approach that defines Kharkiv’s tech ecosystem.

Looking Ahead: Lessons in Business Resilience for a Global Audience

As Kharkiv’s tech start-ups continue to chart an inspiring path of recovery and growth, their journey offers invaluable insights for businesses worldwide. The principles of adaptability, collaboration, innovation, and human-centric leadership that have underpinned their success serve as a compelling blueprint for building resilience in the face of extreme disruption. By studying the experiences of Kharkiv’s entrepreneurs and engineers, organizations across the globe can glean actionable strategies to fortify their business resilience.

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Conclusion

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In conclusion, Kharkiv’s tech start-ups have emerged as beacons of hope and inspiration in the face of unprecedented challenges. Their unwavering resilience, innovative spirit, and collaborative ethos have not only sustained their businesses but also propelled them towards new heights of success. As Ukraine’s entrepreneurs and engineers continue to defy adversity, their story stands as a testament to the transformative power of resilience in business. The world can undoubtedly draw profound lessons from Kharkiv’s remarkable journey—a journey that epitomizes the triumph of human ingenuity in the most trying times.

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Analysis

The Looming Crisis: Bad Property Debt Exceeds Reserves at Largest US Banks

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Introduction

The commercial real estate market has been a significant contributor to the US economy, but it is now facing a looming crisis. The largest US banks are struggling to manage bad property debt, which has exceeded their reserves. Despite regulators highlighting the risks, loan loss provisions have thinned, leaving banks vulnerable to potential losses. In this article, we will explore the reasons behind this crisis, its potential impact on the economy, and what steps banks can take to mitigate the risks.

The Current State of the Commercial Real Estate Market

The commercial real estate market has been booming for the past decade, with low interest rates and a strong economy driving demand. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted this trend, leading to a decline in demand for office and retail spaces. This has resulted in a rise in vacancies and a drop in rental income, putting pressure on property owners and investors.

The Impact on Banks

Banks have been heavily invested in the commercial real estate market, with loans to property owners and investors accounting for a significant portion of their portfolios. However, the decline in demand has led to a rise in defaults and delinquencies, resulting in bad property debt. According to a report by the Federal Reserve, bad property debt at the largest US banks has exceeded their reserves, leaving them vulnerable to potential losses.

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The Role of Loan Loss Provisions

Loan loss provisions are funds set aside by banks to cover potential losses from bad loans. However, in recent years, loan loss provisions have thinned, leaving banks with inadequate reserves to cover potential losses. This has been a concern for regulators, who have highlighted the risks of the commercial real estate market and urged banks to increase their reserves.

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The Potential Impact on the Economy

The commercial real estate market is a significant contributor to the US economy, and a crisis in this sector could have far-reaching consequences. A rise in defaults and delinquencies could lead to a decline in property values, resulting in a drop in investment and a rise in unemployment. This could, in turn, lead to a decline in consumer spending and a slowdown in economic growth.

Mitigating the Risks

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To mitigate the risks, banks need to take a proactive approach. They need to increase their loan loss provisions to cover potential losses from bad property debt. They also need to work with property owners and investors to restructure loans and avoid defaults. Additionally, they need to diversify their portfolios and reduce their exposure to the commercial real estate market.

Conclusion:
The commercial real estate market is facing a crisis, and the largest US banks are struggling to manage bad property debt. Loan loss provisions have thinned, leaving banks vulnerable to potential losses. This crisis could have far-reaching consequences for the US economy, but banks can take steps to mitigate the risks. By increasing their reserves, working with property owners and investors, and diversifying their portfolios, banks can avoid a potential catastrophe and ensure the stability of the US economy.

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