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When stock markets are at odds with the economists

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For those who believe financial markets are completely divorced from economic reality, the past few weeks have thrown up some conclusive proof for their case.

Just a couple of examples illustrate the point. Deutsche Bank has published a survey of the US jobs market showing that over the past four weeks, some 25 million jobs were lost in America as the pandemic-ravaged economy ground to a halt. That is more than have been created since the end of the global financial crisis in 2009.

Another example: Goldman Sachs has calculated that the world’s developed economies — the US, Europe and Japan — will shrink by as much as 35 percent in the current quarter compared to the first three months of the year, which were not exactly buoyant anyway. That is four times the previous record set for economic contraction during the global financial crisis.

Against the background of these figures — cataclysmic by any normal economic standards — the financial markets have been quixotic. The S&P Index, the Wall Street benchmark, last month suffered its biggest one-day fall in more than three decades, in a period of almost consistent declines.

Then, towards the end of the month, the index roared ahead again, with three consecutive days of big rises after the US Congress launched its financial “bazooka” in the form of a $2 trillion support package. President Donald Trump, who lives and breathes by the stock indices, was able to proclaim another triumph.

The S&P is still well off the exuberant levels of mid-February, which was the apex of the Trump bull run, but at least the downward plummet has been halted. Goldman Sachs, the same bank that came out with those awful economic statistics, recently said that stocks were unlikely to go any further, partly because of the “do what it takes” attitude of the Trump administration and Congress.

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Goldman’s other reason for some optimism was that the virus curves were beginning to flatten out in some parts of the world, and more economic policymakers — not least Trump — were beginning to talk about when they might hope to open up their economies. The prospect of a complete economic collapse was “precluded,” Goldman said.

Others pointed to flaws in both arguments. Having fired the big bazooka, the US authorities have little ammunition left to counter a second financial market threat, perhaps from the ballooning market in corporate debt, or some other aspect of the shadow-banking system.

The truly frightening historical perspective comes on calculating when shares finally recovered to pre-Black Monday levels. It was not until 1955, one economic great depression and one world war later.

______Frank Kane

While there have been some encouraging signs that the pandemic is starting to level out, especially in Asia and some European countries, there are huge parts of the world — India, Africa, South America — where there is no or insufficient evidence to make such a call. Large swathes of the global economy could be affected for many months to come.

For financial markets, there is a more immediate danger: Corporate profits for the first half of the year will be catastrophic. Many companies have just gone through the worst quarter of their existence, and profits will be non-existent.

Equity markets still pay great attention to the “price-earnings ratio” which values the shares according to a multiple of the earnings per share. It will be mathematically impossible to determine this when there is no “earnings” value to compute.

Stock markets may comfort themselves by looking to the future, in the hope of a sharp V-shaped recovery towards the end of the year.

But if they look to the past, the perspective is much scarier. In 1929, in the Great Crash — which some experts believe is a more accurate model for our current predicament than the 2008 crisis — shares crashed famously on Black Monday. But they continued falling for another two years, despite lots of little upward blips along the way. The final bottom was not reached until 1932.

The truly frightening historical perspective comes on calculating when shares finally recovered to pre-Black Monday levels. It was not until 1955, one economic great depression and one world war later.

  • Frank Kane is an award-winning business journalist based in Dubai. Twitter: @frankkanedubai
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10 Reasons Why Europeans and Asians Choose Dubai for a Better Life and Luxuries

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Dubai has become a popular destination for people from Europe and Asia who are seeking a better life and luxuries. The city is known for its high standard of living, world-class infrastructure, and a booming economy, among other things. In this article, we will explore the top 10 reasons why people from Europe and Asia move to Dubai and what makes the city so attractive to expats.

One of the primary reasons why people from Europe and Asia move to Dubai is the economic opportunities it offers. The city has a thriving economy that is rapidly diversifying away from oil and expanding into many other sectors, such as finance, real estate, tourism, and technology. This diversification has created many job opportunities for people from all backgrounds, making Dubai an attractive destination for those seeking better career prospects.

Another reason why people from Europe and Asia move to Dubai is the lifestyle and culture. Dubai is a cosmopolitan city that offers a unique blend of traditional and modern cultures. It is home to people from over 200 nationalities, making it one of the most diverse cities in the world. The city has a vibrant nightlife, world-class shopping malls, and some of the best restaurants in the world. Dubai also offers a safe and secure environment for families, with excellent healthcare and education facilities.

Key Takeaways

  • Dubai offers a diverse range of economic opportunities for people from all backgrounds.
  • The lifestyle and culture in Dubai are attractive to expats, with a safe and secure environment for families.
  • The city has world-class infrastructure and connectivity, and the government provides policies and support to make it an attractive destination for expats.

Economic Opportunities

Dubai has become a popular destination for people from Europe and Asia due to the economic opportunities it offers. The city has a thriving economy with a high GDP per capita, which means that people can earn a good living here. Below are some of the reasons why Dubai is a great place to work and do business.

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Tax Benefits

One of the biggest draws of Dubai is the tax benefits it offers. The city has no income tax, which means that people can keep more of their earnings. This is especially attractive to expats who come from countries with high tax rates. Additionally, there is no value-added tax (VAT) on most goods and services, which makes living in Dubai more affordable.

Business Hub

Dubai is a major business hub in the Middle East, with a thriving economy and a favourable business environment. The city has a modern infrastructure and is home to many multinational corporations. Dubai’s strategic location between Europe and Asia makes it an ideal place for businesses to operate. The government has also implemented policies that make it easy to start and run a business in Dubai.

Employment Prospects

Dubai has a diverse economy with opportunities in many different sectors. The city is home to many industries, including finance, real estate, tourism, and healthcare. There is a high demand for skilled professionals, and many companies offer attractive employment packages. Additionally, Dubai has a growing startup scene, with many entrepreneurs choosing to set up their businesses in the city.

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In conclusion, Dubai’s economic opportunities are a major draw for people from Europe and Asia. The city offers tax benefits, a favorable business environment, and attractive employment prospects. These factors make Dubai a great place to work and do business.

Lifestyle and Culture

Dubai is known for its luxurious lifestyle and cultural diversity, making it a popular destination for people from Europe and Asia looking for a better life. Here are some of the reasons why Dubai attracts people from all over the world.

Luxury Living

Dubai is home to some of the most luxurious and iconic buildings in the world, such as the Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest building. The city is also known for its high-end shopping malls, luxurious hotels, and extravagant lifestyle. People from Europe and Asia are drawn to Dubai’s luxurious lifestyle, which offers a high standard of living and a wide range of amenities.

Cultural Diversity

Dubai is a melting pot of cultures, with people from all over the world living and working in the city. This cultural diversity is reflected in the city’s food, music, fashion, and art scenes. Dubai’s multicultural environment provides people from Europe and Asia with the opportunity to experience different cultures and customs, making it an exciting and enriching place to live.

Safety and Security

Dubai is known for being one of the safest cities in the world. The city has a low crime rate and a strong police presence, which makes it a safe place to live. People from Europe and Asia are attracted to Dubai’s safety and security, which provides them with a sense of peace and stability. The city’s strict laws and regulations also contribute to its reputation as a safe and secure place to live.

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In summary, Dubai’s luxurious lifestyle, cultural diversity, and safety and security are some of the reasons why people from Europe and Asia choose to move to the city for a better life and luxuries.

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Infrastructure and Connectivity

Dubai has world-class amenities, a strategic location, and a well-connected transport network, making it an attractive destination for people from Europe and Asia seeking a better life and luxurious living.

World-Class Amenities

Dubai boasts of world-class amenities that cater to the needs of its residents. From luxurious hotels to high-end shopping malls, Dubai has it all. The city is also home to some of the best healthcare facilities, educational institutions, and recreational centers, making it an ideal place to live for families.

Strategic Location

Dubai’s strategic location makes it an ideal hub for business and trade. The city is strategically located between Europe, Asia, and Africa, making it a gateway to these regions. It is also a major transit point for air travel, with the Dubai International Airport being one of the busiest airports in the world.

Transport Network

Dubai has an extensive and well-connected transport network that includes a modern metro system, buses, taxis, and water taxis. The city’s transportation system is efficient, reliable, and affordable, making it easy for residents to travel within the city and beyond.

Overall, Dubai’s world-class amenities, strategic location, and well-connected transport network make it an attractive destination for people from Europe and Asia seeking a better life and luxurious living.

Government Policies and Support

Dubai’s government has implemented various policies and programs to attract foreign investors and expats to the city, making it an ideal destination for those seeking a better life and luxuries. The government has created an investor-friendly environment that encourages foreign investment and supports the growth of businesses.

Residency Programs

Dubai offers several residency programs that enable foreigners to live and work in the city. The most popular program is the Dubai Investment Visa, which allows investors to obtain a residency visa for themselves and their families. The program requires a minimum investment of AED 10 million ($2.7 million) in a new or existing business in Dubai. The visa is valid for three years and can be renewed.

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Another residency program is the Dubai Golden Visa, which grants long-term residency to investors, entrepreneurs, and talented individuals in various fields such as science, art, and culture. The visa is valid for five or ten years and can be renewed.

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Investor-Friendly Environment

Dubai’s government has created an investor-friendly environment that offers various incentives and benefits to foreign investors. The city has no income tax, no corporate tax, and no value-added tax (VAT). The government also provides various subsidies, grants, and loans to support the growth of businesses.

Dubai also has a well-developed infrastructure, including modern transportation systems, world-class airports, and advanced telecommunication networks. The city has a strategic location that makes it an ideal hub for businesses that operate in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.

In conclusion, Dubai’s government policies and support have played a significant role in attracting foreigners to the city. The government’s focus on creating an investor-friendly environment and offering various residency programs has made Dubai an ideal destination for those seeking a better life and luxuries.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the primary benefits of relocating to Dubai for families?

Dubai offers a range of benefits for families, including a high standard of living, excellent healthcare facilities, and world-class education. The city has a low crime rate, making it a safe place to live and raise children. Additionally, Dubai is known for its family-friendly attractions, such as theme parks, water parks, and beaches.

How does Dubai’s lifestyle cater to the aspirations of expatriates from Europe and Asia?

Dubai’s lifestyle is a unique blend of Eastern and Western cultures, making it an attractive destination for expatriates from both Europe and Asia. The city offers a cosmopolitan environment with a diverse range of dining, shopping, and entertainment options. Dubai is also known for its luxury lifestyle, with many expatriates drawn to the city’s high-end shopping and dining experiences.

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What are the economic advantages that attract individuals to settle in Dubai?

Dubai’s economy is booming, and the city offers a range of economic advantages for individuals looking to settle in the city. The city has a tax-free environment, making it an attractive destination for entrepreneurs and business owners. Additionally, Dubai offers a range of job opportunities across a variety of industries, including finance, technology, and healthcare.

In what ways does Dubai accommodate the professional growth of expatriates?

Dubai is known for its business-friendly environment, with many expatriates drawn to the city’s opportunities for professional growth. The city offers a range of training and development programs, as well as networking events and mentorship opportunities. Additionally, Dubai is home to many international companies, providing expatriates with the opportunity to work in a global business environment.

How does the quality of life in Dubai compare to that in European and Asian countries?

Dubai offers a high quality of life, with excellent healthcare, education, and infrastructure. The city is known for its world-class amenities, including luxury hotels, shopping malls, and entertainment venues. Additionally, Dubai’s warm climate and beautiful beaches make it an attractive destination for those seeking a relaxed and comfortable lifestyle.

What considerations should women take into account when moving to Dubai?

Women moving to Dubai should be aware of the city’s cultural and religious customs. While Dubai is a cosmopolitan city, it is still important to dress modestly and respect local customs. Additionally, women should be aware of their legal rights in the city and take precautions to ensure their safety. Dubai has made significant progress in recent years to improve women’s rights and gender equality, but it is still important to be aware of the cultural context when living in the city.

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Business

What Are Four Common Types of Changes and Trends That Offer Business Opportunities?

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young woman shaking hands with boss after business presentation

Introduction

Business opportunities arise from changes and trends that happen in the market. Identifying and capitalizing on such changes and trends can help businesses stay ahead of the competition and grow their revenue. There are several common types of changes and trends that businesses can look out for to identify new opportunities.

One of the most significant changes that businesses can leverage is technological advancements. With the rapid pace of technological innovation, businesses that keep up with the latest technologies can gain a competitive edge. Economic shifts are another area where businesses can find opportunities. As the economy changes, new markets emerge, and businesses can tap into these markets to expand their customer base. Social and cultural trends are also important to consider. Changes in consumer behaviour and preferences can create new opportunities for businesses to offer products and services that meet these needs. Finally, sustainability and environmental concerns are increasingly important for businesses to address. Businesses that adopt sustainable practices and offer eco-friendly products can attract environmentally conscious customers.

Key Takeaways

  • Businesses can identify new opportunities by keeping up with technological advancements.
  • Economic shifts and emerging markets can also create new business opportunities.
  • Social and cultural trends and sustainability concerns are other areas where businesses can find opportunities.

Technological Advancements

Technological advancements have been a driving force behind many of the changes and trends that have offered business opportunities in recent years. Two important subsections of technological advancements that entrepreneurs should be aware of are emerging digital technologies and automation and artificial intelligence.

Emerging Digital Technologies

Emerging digital technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), blockchain, and virtual reality (VR) are creating new business opportunities across a range of industries. For example, IoT enables businesses to collect and analyze large amounts of data from connected devices, which can be used to optimize operations and improve customer experiences. Similarly, blockchain technology is being used to create more secure and transparent supply chains, while VR is being used to create immersive marketing experiences.

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Automation and Artificial Intelligence

Automation and artificial intelligence (AI) are also creating new business opportunities, enabling businesses to automate routine tasks and make more informed decisions. For example, businesses can use AI-powered chatbots to provide customer support around the clock, while automation can be used to streamline processes such as inventory management and order fulfilment. Additionally, AI can analyze large amounts of data to identify patterns and make predictions, which can inform strategic decision-making.

Overall, technological advancements are likely to continue driving changes and trends that offer business opportunities in the years to come. Entrepreneurs who stay up-to-date with emerging technologies and embrace automation and AI are likely to be well-positioned to take advantage of these opportunities.

Economic Shifts

Economic shifts are changes that occur in the economy, which can have a significant impact on businesses. These shifts can create both challenges and opportunities for entrepreneurs. By understanding economic shifts, entrepreneurs can identify business opportunities and position themselves to take advantage of these changes.

Globalization Effects

Globalization has had a significant impact on the economy, and it continues to shape the business landscape. The growth of international trade has created new opportunities for businesses to expand their operations globally. However, it has also increased competition, as companies from different countries compete for the same market share.

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Entrepreneurs can take advantage of globalization by expanding their operations into new markets. This can help them to increase their customer base and revenue streams. However, it is important to note that expanding into new markets can come with its own set of challenges, such as cultural differences and regulatory hurdles.

Market Fluctuations

Market fluctuations are changes in the supply and demand of goods and services in the market. These fluctuations can have a significant impact on businesses, as they can affect the prices of goods and services, as well as the availability of resources.

Entrepreneurs can take advantage of market fluctuations by being proactive and adapting to changes in the market. For example, if there is a shortage of a particular resource, entrepreneurs can look for alternative sources or find ways to reduce their reliance on that resource. Similarly, if there is a sudden increase in demand for a particular product or service, entrepreneurs can capitalize on this by increasing their production or expanding their offerings.

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Overall, economic shifts can create both challenges and opportunities for entrepreneurs. By understanding these shifts and being proactive, entrepreneurs can position themselves to take advantage of these changes and grow their businesses.

Social and Cultural Trends

In the fast-paced business world, keeping up with social and cultural trends is crucial to stay ahead of the competition and identify new business opportunities. By understanding the changes in consumer behaviour and demographic shifts, businesses can adapt their strategies and offer products and services that meet the evolving needs of their customers.

Changing Consumer Preferences

Consumer preferences are constantly changing, driven by a variety of factors such as technology, social media, and cultural shifts. For example, the rise of social media has given consumers more power to influence brands and demand transparency and authenticity. As a result, businesses need to be more responsive to consumer feedback and provide personalized experiences to build brand loyalty.

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Another trend that is shaping consumer preferences is the growing focus on health and wellness. More consumers are seeking products and services that promote physical and mental well-being, leading to a surge in demand for organic and natural products, fitness classes, and wellness retreats. Businesses that can tap into this trend by offering healthy and sustainable products and services can gain a competitive advantage.

Demographic Changes

Demographic changes are also creating new business opportunities. For example, the aging population is driving demand for products and services that cater to older adults, such as healthcare, retirement communities, and home care services. Meanwhile, the growing diversity of the population is leading to new opportunities for businesses that can cater to different cultural backgrounds and languages.

Another demographic trend that is shaping business opportunities is the rise of the millennial generation. As the largest generation in the workforce, millennials are driving demand for products and services that align with their values, such as sustainability, social responsibility, and convenience. Businesses that can cater to these preferences can tap into a growing market and gain a competitive edge.

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Overall, keeping up with social and cultural trends is essential for businesses that want to stay ahead of the curve and identify new opportunities. By understanding the changing preferences of consumers and the shifting demographics of the population, businesses can adapt their strategies and offer products and services that meet the evolving needs of their customers.

Sustainability and Environmental Concerns

As society becomes more environmentally conscious, businesses are presented with new opportunities to innovate and cater to this growing trend. Here are two common types of changes and trends that can offer business opportunities in the sustainability and environmental concerns space.

Green Energy Initiatives

The push for renewable energy sources has been gaining momentum in recent years. This presents a unique opportunity for businesses to invest in green energy initiatives and capitalize on the growing demand for sustainable energy solutions. Companies can explore options such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power to reduce their carbon footprint and attract environmentally conscious customers.

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For example, Tesla has been leading the charge in the electric vehicle market, offering sustainable transportation options to consumers. The company’s innovative approach to battery technology and electric vehicles has helped position it as a leader in the industry.

Waste Reduction and Recycling

Another area of opportunity for businesses is in waste reduction and recycling. With the growing concern for environmental sustainability, businesses can capitalize on this trend by implementing waste reduction and recycling programs. This not only helps to reduce the environmental impact of the business but also appeals to environmentally conscious consumers.

For instance, companies can use biodegradable and compostable packaging materials to reduce the amount of waste generated. They can also implement recycling programs to ensure that waste is properly disposed of and recycled.

In conclusion, businesses that prioritize sustainability and environmental concerns can reap significant benefits in terms of customer loyalty and brand reputation. By investing in green energy initiatives and waste reduction and recycling programs, businesses can not only reduce their environmental impact but also capitalize on the growing trend of sustainability.

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Analysis

S&P: Apac to see resilient growth amid China

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Asia-Pacific (Apac) is expected to see resilient growth in 2023, even as China slows down, according to Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P).

In a report released on September 25, 2023, S&P said that it expects Apac to grow by 3.9% in 2023, compared to 3.8% in its previous forecast. This growth will be driven by domestic resilience in many countries, as well as a gradual improvement in external demand and monetary policy easing.

China, the region’s largest economy, is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2023, down from 5.2% in S&P’s previous forecast. This slowdown is due to a number of factors, including a property downturn, a decline in consumer confidence, and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite the slowdown in China, S&P said that it expects Apac to see resilient growth in 2023. This growth will be driven by a number of factors, including:

  • Domestic resilience: Many countries in Apac are seeing strong domestic demand, which is being driven by factors such as rising incomes and urbanization.
  • Gradual improvement in external demand: The global economy is expected to recover in 2023, which will boost demand for exports from Apac countries.
  • Monetary policy easing: Many central banks in Apac are cutting interest rates in order to boost economic growth.

S&P also said that it expects Apac to see a number of positive trends in 2023, including:

  • Continued growth in the digital economy: The digital economy is growing rapidly in Apac, and this is expected to continue in 2023. This growth will be driven by factors such as the increasing use of smartphones and the internet, as well as the development of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and 5G.
  • Rising investment in infrastructure: Many countries in Apac are investing heavily in infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, and airports. This investment is expected to boost economic growth and create jobs.
  • Growing middle class: The middle class in Apac is growing rapidly, and this is expected to continue in 2023. This growth will create new opportunities for businesses and lead to increased consumer spending.
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Overall, S&P is optimistic about the outlook for Apac in 2023. The region is expected to see resilient growth, even as China slows down. This growth will be driven by domestic resilience, a gradual improvement in external demand, and monetary policy easing.

Here is a more detailed look at the outlook for some of the key economies in Apac:

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  • India: India is expected to be one of the fastest-growing economies in Apac in 2023, with growth of 7.8%. This growth will be driven by strong domestic demand, rising investment, and a favourable export environment.
  • Indonesia: Indonesia is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2023, up from 5.2% in 2022. This growth will be driven by strong domestic demand, rising investment, and a recovery in the tourism sector.
  • Japan: Japan is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2023, up from 1.8% in 2022. This growth will be driven by a recovery in consumer spending and a gradual improvement in external demand.
  • South Korea: South Korea is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2023, down from 2.6% in 2022. This slowdown is due to a number of factors, including a decline in exports and rising interest rates.
  • Australia: Australia is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2023, down from 2.7% in 2022. This slowdown is due to a number of factors, including a decline in exports and rising interest rates.

Overall, the outlook for Apac in 2023 is positive. The region is expected to see resilient growth, even as China slows down. This growth will be driven by domestic resilience, a gradual improvement in external demand, and monetary policy easing.

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Implications for businesses

The resilient growth outlook for Apac in 2023 presents a number of opportunities for businesses. Businesses can expand into new markets in Apac, launch new products and services, and invest in new technologies.

To capitalize on these opportunities, businesses should focus on the following strategies:

Develop a deep understanding of local markets: Businesses should develop a deep understanding of the local markets they are targeting.

Develop a deep understanding of local markets: Businesses should develop a deep understanding of the local markets they are targeting. This includes understanding the competitive landscape, the regulatory environment, and the cultural differences.

Tailor your products and services to local needs: Businesses should tailor their products and services to the local needs of their target markets. This may involve adapting their marketing messages, pricing strategies, and product features.

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Invest in local talent: Businesses should invest in local talent in order to build a strong team that understands the local market and culture. This will help businesses to operate more effectively and to develop relationships with local customers and partners.

Partner with local businesses: Businesses can partner with local businesses in order to expand their reach and to gain access to new distribution channels. This can also help businesses to learn from the experience of local businesses and to adapt their strategies accordingly.

Invest in digital marketing: Digital marketing is becoming increasingly important in Apac, as more and more consumers are using smartphones and the internet. Businesses should invest in digital marketing channels such as search engine optimization (SEO), social media marketing, and email marketing.

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By following these strategies, businesses can capitalize on the resilient growth outlook for Apac in 2023.

Conclusion

The outlook for Apac in 2023 is positive. The region is expected to see resilient growth, even as China slows down. This growth will be driven by domestic resilience, a gradual improvement in external demand, and monetary policy easing.

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Businesses can capitalize on this growth outlook by developing a deep understanding of local markets, tailoring their products and services to local needs, investing in local talent, partnering with local businesses, and investing in digital marketing.

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