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US-Iran Conflict in Historical Perspective

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The US-Iran conflict has become critical in wake of US Drone Strike that assassinated Iranian top general Qassem Suleimani since the US considered him the imminent threat to the United States but Trump administration has been heavily criticized by Political Circles.

The political analysts and foreign policy experts are of the view that Donald Trump has committed the extrajudicial killing of General Suleimani and has deliberately escalated the situation with Iran to escape impeachment which is likely to commence as Nancy Pelosi has announced the impeachment managers. The Impeachment Process has already begun.

In a historic perspective, the US has always meddled in the affairs of Iran. The 45 years of hostility towards Iran has sowed the seed of hatred when US and UK agencies orchestrated a plan against a democratically elected secular Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq to overthrow his Government since he tried to nationalize Iran’s Oil Industry.

Oil has been the alluring industry for the US and Mossadeq’s attempt to nationalize Iranian Oil cost him his Premiership in 1953.  The Political Analysts call it a historical blunder to meddle in the affairs of Iran.

Later, the US-backed the dictatorial ruler Shah of Iran- Mohammad Reza Pahlavi despite being aware that his regime was incompetent and the rising autocratic Governance model has been weakening.

The streets started flooding with protesters against Shah of Iran’s Regime and he was forcibly ousted by secular and religious forces in 1979, known as the Islamic Revolution.

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This growing dissent and turmoil in Iran paved the way for the return of the exiled Islamic Religious leader Ayatollah Khomeini. The referendum was held and Iran was formally proclaimed as the Islamic Republic of Iran on 1s April 1971.

US backing to Shah of Iran resulted in growing hatred and antagonism against America. The angry protesters ransacked the US Embassy in Tehran and made the whole staff as a hostage in 1979. After President Ronald Reagan took the office, the 52 hostages were released by Iran after 444 days in 1981.

US-Iran relations witnessed another Setback when the US secretly shipped arms as the exchange of Iran’s help in the release of US hostages held by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. This Iran-contra scandal-hit US hard when the benefit such as arms supply channelled to rebellion group in Nicaragua that caused a severe political crisis for American President Ronald Reagan.

Similarly, as Iran has mistakenly downed Ukrainian Passenger jetliner in which 176 passengers were killed, American warship had also shot down an Iranian Passenger plane killing all 290 passengers on board.

Most of the victims were Iranian pilgrims bound for Makkah. Unlike Iran, the US had made a similar statement that the Airbus A300 was downed by mistake considering it a fighter Jet.

This incident had also increased antagonism and hatred against America in Iran.

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In the aftermath of the 9/11 incident, in 2001, the US carried out strikes against Taliban in Afghanistan terming Osama bin laden as a most wanted terrorist and for the regime change in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, the Iranian opposition group revealed that Iran has been engaged in nuclear Program having set up Uranium enrichment Plan, however, the Iranian Government denied such charges.

American President George W Bush during his union address denounced Iran as part of an “Axis of Evil” along with Iraq and North Korea, thus opening another chapter of conflict.

The UN Watchdog IAEA inspected Iran’s Nuclear Program. Consequently, tough sanctions were imposed on Iran by the US, EU and UN that crippled its economy during the regime of President Mehmood Ahmed Nejad. The economic sanctions devalued Iranian currency that caused abrupt inflation and economic condition became volatile.

The relations between US and Iran grew closer as the moderate and secular president Hassan Rouhani took office and after decades of stiff relations, the ice started melting when US president Barak Obama phoned Hassan Rouhani after three decades.

Following such gesture from the US, the diplomatic channels worked for Iran prompting to sign a long-time nuclear deal in 2015 with great power group containing  US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany.

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Through the deal, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear programme allowing International Inspectors. In return, the crippling economic sanctions were lifted that had affected the country very hard especially its Oil exports -the main source of income for the country to strengthen its economy.

Trump administration has become a great headache for Iran since Iran’s nuclear deal was abandoned by President Donald Trump and threatened to impose economic sanctions against Iran and against those who intend to buy oil from Iran.

Such a hard attitude instigated the conflict even further since the Iranian Economy was already under heavy recession.

As a result of above the statement, US President Donald Trump re-imposed tough economic sanctions on Iranian Oil in May 2019 while Iran started a pressure campaign against the US.

The series of Incidents happened thereafter such as Explosions hitting tankers in Gulf of Oman and Iran’s shooting down a US drone hovering over Strait of Hormuz. The US claimed the drone was over International waters whereas Iran said that it was over their Territory.

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Given the US Sanctions and blame game, Iran started rolling back from its commitments as reflected in the nuclear deal and started Uranium enrichment.

Finally, when US Drone strike assassinated Iranian Top General Qassem Suleimani in Iraq, the Iranian people became united.

Millions of people attended the funeral prayers of General Qassem Suleimani and protested against America in Iraq and Iran.

The analysts said that it was the biggest protest after the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran as millions of people participated in the last rituals of General Qassem Suleimani.

Iran announced to take revenge to shun angry protesters that demanded retaliation against US aggression.

Under-Pressure Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei approved targeting US Military basis in Iraq by firing dozen Cruise Missiles but there were no casualties.

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Since then, Donald Trump has been heavily criticized for the extrajudicial killing of General Qassem Suleimani. Even Middle East crisis worsened following the Iraqi Parliament resolution demanding US Troops and Allies for leaving Iraq after Qassem Suleimani’s  Assassination. The Iranian Proxies may attack US military basis since Iran has a strong network of proxies in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Palestine.

Now the Questions arises that will it be a world war-III the answer is “No” since, after strikes, both countries have shown sensibility and restraint as plane tragedy has spread shocking tremors after Iranian Revolutionary Guards claimed the responsibility of mistakenly downing a Passenger Jet carrying 174 passengers in the limits of Tehran’s International Airport. Iran, at first, denied the incident, but after international pressure accepted that the passenger jet was downed by mistake.

Iran has publicly apologized for the mistake and announced compensation for the bereaved families but the Ukrainian and Canadian Governments have demanded a thorough investigation and apologize through diplomatic channels.

Mike Pompeo has also sought help from Pakistan for de-escalation as both countries do not want war. All the world powers have urged both the US and Iran to de-escalate tensions and resolve the conflict through negotiations.

The European Union, UK, Russia, China and other NATO members have started diplomatic efforts to prevent both countries going to all-out war as War will bring miseries and destruction for humanity since both nations are nuclear capacious though Iran has not announced its nuclear capability.

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UN and European Union must play their role to engage both parties in negotiation so that Possibilities of World War-III may be averted to save humanity falling prey to destruction, hunger, Economic crisis, homelessness and disease. Negotiations will also pave the way for the lifting of tough economic sanctions against Iran that have crippled the fragile Iranian Economy causing Inflation and Price hike.

Moreover, US-Iran conflict may jeopardize US-Taliban talks for which Pakistan has played a key role to make the deal Possible as Afghan Peace will be beneficial to the whole region including Pakistan. Terrorism emanating from Afghanistan has affected Pakistan very badly especially Economy that has also been volatile owing to corrupt practices of politico regimes and rising debts.

The world must wake up from the slumber to play their role to de-escalate the tensions between US –Iran so that diplomatic relations stalemate may be scrapped and the new chapter of Economic cooperation and relations may be written that will benefit the people of both beleaguered Nations having tumultuous and alienated history causing the existing crisis that has made the Middle East and Gulf Crisis even worse.

Given the situation in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, world leaders especially EU and UN must come forward to save the humanity falling prey to World War III that will be disastrous and destructive owing  Nuclear Technology. The world cannot afford to see tragedies like Hiroshima and Nagasaki

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China

Unveiling China’s Diplomatic Strategy: How Funding Fuels Influence in the Global South

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Introduction

In the realm of international relations, China’s approach to diplomacy has been a subject of intrigue and analysis. With a keen focus on the Global South, Beijing’s strategic manoeuvring in merging funding with diplomacy has reshaped traditional power dynamics. This article delves into how China leverages financial resources to bolster its influence in regions like Latin America and Africa, shedding light on the implications of this approach.

1: The Evolution of China’s Diplomatic Strategy
China’s diplomatic strategy has undergone a significant evolution over the years, transitioning from a policy of non-interference to proactive engagement with developing nations. By intertwining funding initiatives with diplomatic efforts, Beijing has effectively positioned itself as a key player in shaping global discourse.

1.1: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
At the forefront of China’s diplomatic endeavors is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive infrastructure development project spanning multiple continents. Through the BRI, China extends financial support to countries in need of infrastructure development, fostering closer ties and enhancing its geopolitical influence.

1.2: South-South Cooperation
China’s engagement with the Global South is characterized by a commitment to South-South cooperation, emphasizing mutual benefit and shared development goals. By offering funding assistance without imposing political conditions, Beijing has cultivated strong partnerships with countries in Latin America and Africa.

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2: Beijing’s Engagement with Latin America
Latin America has emerged as a key battleground for China’s diplomatic ambitions, with Beijing actively seeking to deepen economic and political ties with countries in the region. Through strategic investments and funding initiatives, China aims to solidify its position as a leading partner for Latin American nations.

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2.1: Economic Investments
China’s economic investments in Latin America have surged in recent years, encompassing sectors such as infrastructure, energy, and technology. By providing funding for critical projects, Beijing not only stimulates economic growth in the region but also strengthens its influence over key decision-making processes.

2.2: Political Alliances
In addition to economic investments, China has forged strategic political alliances with countries in Latin America, leveraging its financial resources to garner support on international issues. By aligning interests and offering funding assistance, Beijing cements its position as a trusted partner for regional governments.

3: China’s Engagement with Africa
Africa represents another focal point of China’s diplomatic outreach, with Beijing actively engaging with African nations through a combination of funding initiatives and strategic partnerships. By investing in key sectors and promoting cooperation, China seeks to enhance its presence on the African continent.

3.1: Infrastructure Development
China’s investments in infrastructure development across Africa have been instrumental in driving economic growth and connectivity within the region. Through initiatives like the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), Beijing channels funding towards critical projects that benefit both Chinese interests and African development goals.

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3.2: Resource Diplomacy
Resource diplomacy plays a crucial role in China’s engagement with Africa, as Beijing seeks to secure access to vital resources through strategic partnerships with African nations. By offering funding for resource extraction projects and infrastructure development, China strengthens its foothold in key sectors like mining and energy.

Conclusion:
China’s fusion of funding and diplomacy represents a nuanced approach to global engagement, one that prioritizes economic cooperation and mutual benefit. By strategically leveraging financial resources to build relationships with countries in the Global South, Beijing is positioning itself as a formidable player on the world stage. As we witness the unfolding dynamics of international relations, it becomes evident that China’s push to lead the Global South is not merely about funding projects but about shaping a new era of diplomatic influence.

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Startups

Rising from Adversity: Kharkiv’s Tech Start-Ups and the Art of Business Resilience in Ukraine

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In the bustling city of Kharkiv, Ukraine, a remarkable story of resilience and innovation is unfolding. Despite facing extreme disruption, the region’s tech start-ups have defied the odds, showcasing the indomitable spirit of Ukraine’s entrepreneurs and engineers. This article delves into the extraordinary journey of Kharkiv’s tech ecosystem, exploring how it has emerged as a testament to unwavering determination and adaptability in the face of adversity.

Introduction

The city of Kharkiv has long been a hub of technological advancement and entrepreneurial fervour. Home to a burgeoning community of start-ups and tech companies, it has rapidly gained recognition as a hotbed of innovation in Ukraine. However, the region’s resilience has been put to the ultimate test in recent years, as it grappled with unprecedented challenges ranging from political unrest to armed conflict. Despite these adversities, Kharkiv’s tech start-ups have not only survived but thrived, offering invaluable lessons in business resilience.

The Genesis of Kharkiv’s Tech Ecosystem

To understand the remarkable resilience of Kharkiv’s tech start-ups, it is essential to delve into the origins of the region’s burgeoning ecosystem. The city’s rich legacy of academic excellence and scientific research laid the groundwork for a vibrant culture of innovation. With a strong emphasis on STEM education and a pool of talented engineers and developers, Kharkiv became an ideal breeding ground for tech entrepreneurship.

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Navigating Adversity: The Impact of Political Unrest and Armed Conflict

The outbreak of political unrest and armed conflict in Ukraine cast a dark shadow over Kharkiv’s burgeoning tech scene. The region found itself grappling with economic instability, infrastructure disruptions, and an uncertain business environment. In the face of such formidable challenges, many would have expected Kharkiv’s tech start-ups to falter. However, what transpired was nothing short of extraordinary.

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Adaptability in Action: Pivoting Strategies and Innovation

Faced with extreme disruption, Kharkiv’s entrepreneurs and engineers demonstrated remarkable adaptability, swiftly pivoting their business strategies to navigate the tumultuous landscape. From embracing remote work models to diversifying their product offerings, these companies showcased an unparalleled ability to innovate in the face of adversity. The rapid adoption of cutting-edge technologies and agile development methodologies further underscored their commitment to staying ahead of the curve.

Forging Resilient Partnerships: Collaborative Ecosystem and Global Outreach

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Central to Kharkiv’s resilience was the spirit of collaboration that permeated its tech ecosystem. Start-ups, established companies, academic institutions, and government agencies joined forces to provide mutual support and foster innovation. Furthermore, despite the challenging geopolitical climate, Kharkiv’s tech community actively pursued global partnerships and market opportunities, showcasing an unwavering commitment to growth and expansion.

The Human Element: Nurturing Talent and Well-Being

Amidst the chaos and uncertainty, Kharkiv’s tech leaders recognized the importance of prioritizing the well-being and professional development of their teams. Initiatives focused on mental health support, skill enhancement programs, and inclusive work cultures played a pivotal role in sustaining morale and driving productivity. The emphasis on nurturing talent underscored the human-centric approach that defines Kharkiv’s tech ecosystem.

Looking Ahead: Lessons in Business Resilience for a Global Audience

As Kharkiv’s tech start-ups continue to chart an inspiring path of recovery and growth, their journey offers invaluable insights for businesses worldwide. The principles of adaptability, collaboration, innovation, and human-centric leadership that have underpinned their success serve as a compelling blueprint for building resilience in the face of extreme disruption. By studying the experiences of Kharkiv’s entrepreneurs and engineers, organizations across the globe can glean actionable strategies to fortify their business resilience.

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Conclusion

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In conclusion, Kharkiv’s tech start-ups have emerged as beacons of hope and inspiration in the face of unprecedented challenges. Their unwavering resilience, innovative spirit, and collaborative ethos have not only sustained their businesses but also propelled them towards new heights of success. As Ukraine’s entrepreneurs and engineers continue to defy adversity, their story stands as a testament to the transformative power of resilience in business. The world can undoubtedly draw profound lessons from Kharkiv’s remarkable journey—a journey that epitomizes the triumph of human ingenuity in the most trying times.

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Analysis

The Looming Crisis: Bad Property Debt Exceeds Reserves at Largest US Banks

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Introduction

The commercial real estate market has been a significant contributor to the US economy, but it is now facing a looming crisis. The largest US banks are struggling to manage bad property debt, which has exceeded their reserves. Despite regulators highlighting the risks, loan loss provisions have thinned, leaving banks vulnerable to potential losses. In this article, we will explore the reasons behind this crisis, its potential impact on the economy, and what steps banks can take to mitigate the risks.

The Current State of the Commercial Real Estate Market

The commercial real estate market has been booming for the past decade, with low interest rates and a strong economy driving demand. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted this trend, leading to a decline in demand for office and retail spaces. This has resulted in a rise in vacancies and a drop in rental income, putting pressure on property owners and investors.

The Impact on Banks

Banks have been heavily invested in the commercial real estate market, with loans to property owners and investors accounting for a significant portion of their portfolios. However, the decline in demand has led to a rise in defaults and delinquencies, resulting in bad property debt. According to a report by the Federal Reserve, bad property debt at the largest US banks has exceeded their reserves, leaving them vulnerable to potential losses.

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The Role of Loan Loss Provisions

Loan loss provisions are funds set aside by banks to cover potential losses from bad loans. However, in recent years, loan loss provisions have thinned, leaving banks with inadequate reserves to cover potential losses. This has been a concern for regulators, who have highlighted the risks of the commercial real estate market and urged banks to increase their reserves.

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The Potential Impact on the Economy

The commercial real estate market is a significant contributor to the US economy, and a crisis in this sector could have far-reaching consequences. A rise in defaults and delinquencies could lead to a decline in property values, resulting in a drop in investment and a rise in unemployment. This could, in turn, lead to a decline in consumer spending and a slowdown in economic growth.

Mitigating the Risks

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To mitigate the risks, banks need to take a proactive approach. They need to increase their loan loss provisions to cover potential losses from bad property debt. They also need to work with property owners and investors to restructure loans and avoid defaults. Additionally, they need to diversify their portfolios and reduce their exposure to the commercial real estate market.

Conclusion:
The commercial real estate market is facing a crisis, and the largest US banks are struggling to manage bad property debt. Loan loss provisions have thinned, leaving banks vulnerable to potential losses. This crisis could have far-reaching consequences for the US economy, but banks can take steps to mitigate the risks. By increasing their reserves, working with property owners and investors, and diversifying their portfolios, banks can avoid a potential catastrophe and ensure the stability of the US economy.

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