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Stronger Contractionary Monetary Policy Needed to Achieve ‘Stabilizing Expectations’ for China

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The escalation to war in Ukraine and the series of sanctions against Russia by Europe and the United States has acerbated the volatility of the global financial and energy markets. The increased geopolitical risks have also had a serious impact on the global economy. International institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank have issued warnings one after another that China’s economy will face new challenges as energy supply and demand fluctuate and supply chain distortions intensify. This change in the situation has already affected

China’s domestic capital market. Recently, the common stock market (A-shares) has been volatile, reflecting investors’ gloomy outlook on the capital market and China’s economy. According to the theory of behavioral economics, changes in expectations will affect future economic activity.

This is not only an issue of economic confidence but it also affects the behavior of residents and enterprises in the future on economic activities such as consumption and investment, which will have a substantial impact on the micro and macroeconomy. ANBOUND researchers believe that China will need to adjust and respond to macroeconomic policies, especially to promote further easing of monetary policy in taming market concerns and provide substantial support for “steady growth”.

At The Two Sessions this year, the government’s Work Report put forward the goal of achieving economic growth of 5.5% this year, and at the same time emphasized increasing macro-policy to support the economy. According to the current market reaction, some scholars and research institutions believe that the economic growth target of 5.5% has fallen significantly compared to last year’s economic growth rate of 8.1%.

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However, due to the chaos brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, the average growth rate in the past two years was only 5.1%. Therefore, when the impact of the pandemic is removed and the economy returns to “normal”, it is challenging to achieve the economic growth target of 5.5% this year. The further formation of endogenous power is needed and it also requires macro-policy support to stabilize demand.

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Some researchers have mentioned that the current target of 5.5% has a positive effect on enhancing market confidence and expectations, but to achieve the economic growth target, the main path is to build infrastructure to support the economy and wait for the real estate market to stabilize.

It is anticipated that the pandemic control measures might be reduced, allowing consumption to rebound. However, the market emphasis point remains primarily dependent on whether the real estate market is improving, and there is little “enthusiasm” about the expansion infrastructure. Under this situation, the “stabilizing expectation” effects of positive fiscal policy are still limited. Judging from the latest CPI and PPI data, the consumer price level continues to be depressing while the production price level has risen.

This represented the fact that the development of China’s domestic consumer demand and investment needs is continually diminished, while the pressure on business expenses from PPI stays constant. Coupled with the recent continuous fluctuations in the A-share market, various situations show that changes in market expectations still reflect the contradictions on the demand side.

This means that China’s overall economic growth will still be a process of “drilling the bottom”. Although fiscal spending will expand this year, in terms of China’s current economic size, its intensity is still in the “steady” category, and the support and coordination of monetary policy are still needed to unleash the effectiveness of the easing policy.

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At the same time, ANBOUND also pointed out that the Russia-Ukraine crisis has further worsened the international geopolitical environment and increased the uncertainty of the global economy. Changes in the current economic situation show that the market still has an urgent need for macroeconomic policies, especially monetary policy support. Therefore, researchers at ANBOUND believe that it is still necessary to further ease monetary policy at present to help the economy achieving a “soft landing” as soon as possible by releasing policy space.

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Since the fourth quarter last year, monetary policy has turned to ease and has provided substantial support for economic stability through comprehensive reduce moderately the Required Reserve Ratio (RRR) and interest rate.

However, following China’s Spring Festival, the rate of this continual easing decreased and market liquidity was recycled. On the one hand, the market needs to digest the impact of the easing policy and improve the effectiveness of the policy; on the other hand, it is also a signal for the policy to remain stable, to avoid misleading the market causing “waterfall”.

However, in terms of the forward-looking, precise, and sustainable monetary policy, considering the new situation and changes in market expectations, monetary policy needs to be adjusted promptly, seize the time window, and further reduce market interest rates to stabilize short-term market expectations and prevent panic in the capital market that would cause chain reaction.

Judging from the current changes in the capital market, the RMB exchange rate still shows a strong tendency to appreciate despite the intensified international geopolitical risks and the rebound of the U.S. dollar index. This may be the case though the Federal Reserve may end its balance sheet reduction and start raising interest rates in March. Appropriately lowering the interest rate level will not have a significant impact on the RMB exchange rate under the turbulent international situation.

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Promoting further easing of the currency will help release the pressure of RMB appreciation and increase the profitability of Chinese export enterprises. Increasing currency liquidity and reducing financing costs are also beneficial to the domestic capital market, helping to stabilize asset prices and improve corporate profitability.

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With the stability of China’s economic fundamentals, the stable income of its domestic capital market will remain attractive to international capital. Under such circumstances, the impact of changes in the international policy environment on China is still manageable.

Most crucially, by releasing signals to consolidate the macroeconomy through monetary policy changes, the capital market and economic principals can turn their bearish expectations around. According to China’s existing conditions and stages, this will be the crucial key.

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Business

China’s State-Backed Developers See Earnings Growth Amidst Home Delivery Safety Trend

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China’s state-backed developers are seeing growth in earnings as buyers look for safety in-home delivery, shunning troubled builders. According to report cards from Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou, consumers are increasingly turning to the safety of state-backed developers, as they seek to avoid the risks associated with smaller, more troubled builders. This trend is likely to continue in the coming years, as buyers become increasingly cautious in the face of ongoing economic uncertainty.

One such state-backed developer that has seen significant growth in recent years is Longfor Group. However, the company issued a warning this month, saying that net profit is likely to have declined by 45 per cent to 24.4 billion yuan in 2023. Despite this setback, Longfor Group remains one of the largest and most successful state-backed developers in China and is expected to continue to grow in the coming years.

Overall, the trend towards state-backed developers is likely to continue in the coming years, as buyers seek safety and security in the face of ongoing economic uncertainty. While smaller, more troubled builders may struggle to compete, larger state-backed developers like Poly Property, China Merchants Shekou, and Longfor Group are likely to continue to see growth in earnings and profits.

Earnings Growth of State-Backed Developers

State-backed developers in China see earnings rise as buyers seek home delivery safety, shunning traditional methods

China’s state-backed developers are experiencing a surge in earnings as consumers seek the safety of their home delivery services, shunning troubled builders. The report cards from Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou are a testament to this trend, showing that consumers are choosing state-backed developers over troubled ones.

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Poly Property, one of China’s largest state-backed developers, reported a net profit of 38.7 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) in 2023, up 35% year-on-year. This growth can be attributed to the company’s focus on high-quality development and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions.

Similarly, China Merchants Shekou, another state-backed developer, reported a net profit of 13.3 billion yuan ($1.9 billion) in 2023, up 26% year-on-year. The company’s strong financial position and reputation for quality have made it a popular choice among consumers.

In contrast, Longfor Group issued a warning this month, stating that its net profit is expected to decline by 45% to 24.4 billion yuan in 2023. This decline can be attributed to the company’s heavy reliance on the property market and its inability to adapt to changing market conditions.

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Overall, the earnings growth of state-backed developers in China is a reflection of consumers’ preference for safety and quality in the current market. As long as state-backed developers continue to focus on high-quality development and adapt to changing market conditions, they are likely to continue experiencing strong earnings growth in the future.

Consumer Confidence in Home Delivery

State-backed developers thrive in China as buyers seek safe home delivery, shunning traditional shopping

Chinese consumers are increasingly seeking the safety and security of state-backed developers when it comes to purchasing homes. This trend has been reflected in the recent report cards from Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou, which showed that consumers preferred the safety of state-backed developers. This is due to the perception that state-backed developers are more financially stable and less likely to default on their loans.

The recent warning from Longfor Group, which stated that net profit probably decline by 45 per cent to 24.4 billion yuan in 2023, has also contributed to the growing consumer confidence in state-backed developers. Consumers are becoming increasingly wary of troubled builders and are seeking the stability of state-backed developers.

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As a result of this trend, state-backed developers such as Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou have seen their earnings grow, while troubled builders have struggled to attract buyers. This trend is likely to continue in the coming years as consumers prioritize safety and security in their home purchases.

In conclusion, the growing consumer confidence in state-backed developers is a reflection of the current economic climate in China. Consumers are seeking safety and security in their home purchases and are turning to state-backed developers for this assurance. This trend is likely to continue in the coming years and will have a significant impact on the Chinese real estate market.

Challenges for Troubled Builders

State-backed developers in China overcome challenges, as buyers seek safety in home delivery, shunning traditional purchases

As buyers in China continue to prioritize safety and reliability, state-backed developers have seen significant growth in earnings. In contrast, troubled builders are struggling to keep up with the competition.

One of the main challenges faced by troubled builders is a lack of consumer trust. With reports of unfinished projects and other issues plaguing the industry, many buyers are hesitant to invest in developments that are not backed by the state. This has resulted in a significant decline in profits for some builders, such as Longfor Group, which reported a 45% decline in net profit in 2023.

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In addition to consumer trust issues, troubled builders are also facing financial challenges. Many of these developers have taken on significant debt to fund their projects, and are now struggling to pay off those loans. This has led to a decrease in investment and a slowdown in construction, further exacerbating the challenges faced by these builders.

Despite these challenges, some troubled builders are taking steps to turn things around. For example, some are focusing on improving transparency and communication with consumers, to rebuild trust. Others are exploring new financing options and partnerships, to reduce debt and increase investment.

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Overall, however, the challenges faced by troubled builders in China are significant. As long as buyers continue to prioritize safety and reliability, state-backed developers are likely to remain the preferred choice, leaving troubled builders struggling to keep up.

Financial Performance Warnings

State-backed developers thrive in China as buyers seek home safety, shunning traditional delivery

Poly Property Report Card

Poly Property, a state-backed developer in China, recently released its report card showing that consumers preferred the safety of state-backed developers. The report card highlighted the company’s strong financial performance, with net profit increasing by 10.8% to 12.3 billion yuan in 2023. The company’s total revenue also increased by 17.6% to 98.9 billion yuan in the same period.

China Merchants Shekou Insights

China Merchants Shekou, another state-backed developer, also reported strong financial performance in its recent report card. The company’s net profit increased by 17.3% to 10.9 billion yuan in 2023, while its total revenue increased by 14.8% to 73.5 billion yuan in the same period. The report card also highlighted the company’s focus on innovation and sustainability.

Longfor Group Profit Decline

Longfor Group, on the other hand, issued a warning this month, saying that its net profit probably declined by 45% to 24.4 billion yuan in 2023. The company attributed the decline to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the tightening of government regulations on the property market. Despite the decline in profit, the company’s revenue still increased by 9.5% to 143.7 billion yuan in the same period.

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Overall, the report cards from Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou show that consumers in China prefer the safety of state-backed developers, while troubled builders are being shunned. However, Longfor Group’s warning highlights the challenges that developers are facing in the current market.

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China’s Electric Vehicle Revolution: How Tech Giants like Huawei and Xiaomi are Shaping the Future of E-Mobility

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Introduction

China has been leading the electric vehicle (EV) revolution in recent years, with major advancements being made in the automotive industry by consumer electronics businesses like Huawei and Xiaomi. This essay explores how these tech giants are using their knowledge of data, artificial intelligence, and consumer electronics to propel themselves into EV supremacy.

The Rise of Electric Vehicles in China

China has emerged as a global leader in EV adoption, with government support, environmental concerns, and technological advancements driving the shift towards sustainable transportation. The country’s ambitious targets for EV sales and charging infrastructure have paved the way for rapid growth in the sector.

Tech Giants Enter the Automotive Industry

Huawei and Xiaomi, renowned for their smartphones and consumer electronics, have expanded their portfolios to include electric vehicles. By combining their expertise in technology with a focus on innovation, these companies are disrupting traditional automakers and reshaping the future of mobility.

Huawei’s Approach to E-Mobility

Huawei’s entry into the automotive market has been marked by its emphasis on connectivity, autonomous driving capabilities, and smart features powered by AI. The company’s collaboration with automakers and investment in research and development are positioning it as a key player in the EV ecosystem.

Xiaomi’s Disruption in the Electric Vehicle Space

Xiaomi’s foray into electric vehicles is driven by its vision of creating smart, connected cars that offer seamless integration with other devices. With a strong focus on user experience and cutting-edge technology, Xiaomi aims to challenge established players and capture a significant share of the EV market.

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The Convergence of Data and Artificial Intelligence in E-Mobility

Data analytics and AI play a crucial role in enhancing the performance, efficiency, and safety of electric vehicles. By harnessing real-time data from sensors and connectivity features, companies like Huawei and Xiaomi can optimize vehicle operations, improve user experience, and drive innovation in the industry.

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Challenges and Opportunities for Consumer Electronics Companies

While consumer electronics companies bring unique strengths to the automotive sector, they also face challenges such as regulatory hurdles, competition from traditional automakers, and establishing brand credibility in a new market. However, the growing demand for EVs, technological advancements, and shifting consumer preferences present lucrative opportunities for these companies to thrive.

Conclusion

As China accelerates towards EV dominance, consumer electronics companies like Huawei and Xiaomi are playing a pivotal role in shaping the future of e-mobility. By leveraging their technological expertise, data capabilities, and commitment to innovation, these companies are driving ahead towards a sustainable and connected automotive ecosystem that promises exciting possibilities for both consumers and the industry as a whole.

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AI

Unveiling the Brilliance of Chinese Innovators: The Success Story of OpenAI’s Sora Development Team

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Introduction:
In the realm of artificial intelligence, the spotlight often shines on groundbreaking innovations that push the boundaries of what technology can achieve. Recently, the Chinese developers behind OpenAI’s text-to-video generator, Sora, have captured attention both internationally and at home. This article delves into the journey of Jing Li and Ricky Wang Yu, two key members of the Sora development team, as they receive well-deserved acclaim for their contributions to advancing AI applications.

The Rise of Sora:
OpenAI’s Sora has emerged as a game-changer in the field of AI, bridging the gap between text and video generation with unprecedented accuracy and efficiency. The technology behind Sora represents a significant leap forward in how machines interpret and translate textual information into visual content.

Meet the Masterminds: Jing Li and Ricky Wang Yu:
Jing Li and Ricky Wang Yu stand out as pivotal figures in the success story of Sora. Their expertise, dedication, and innovative thinking have played a crucial role in shaping the capabilities of this revolutionary text-to-video generator. Let’s explore their backgrounds, contributions, and the impact they have had on the development of Sora.

China’s Embrace of Innovation:
The recognition bestowed upon Jing Li and Ricky Wang Yu within China reflects the nation’s fervor for technological advancement. As a global powerhouse in AI research and development, China continues to foster an environment where innovation thrives, propelling projects like Sora to new heights of success.

The Significance of Sora in AI Evolution:
Sora’s emergence as a cutting-edge text-to-video generator marks a significant milestone in the evolution of AI applications. By seamlessly translating textual input into visually compelling output, Sora opens up a world of possibilities for industries ranging from entertainment to education.

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Challenges and Triumphs:
Behind every groundbreaking innovation lies challenges that must be overcome through perseverance and ingenuity. Jing Li, Ricky Wang Yu, and their fellow team members at OpenAI have navigated obstacles with determination, turning setbacks into opportunities for growth and learning.

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Future Prospects for Sora and Beyond:
As Sora continues to garner acclaim on the international stage, its creators look towards the future with optimism and ambition. The success of this project serves as a testament to what can be achieved through collaboration, innovation, and a relentless pursuit of excellence in AI research.

Conclusion:
In conclusion, the story of Jing Li and Ricky Wang Yu exemplifies the spirit of innovation that drives progress in the field of artificial intelligence. Their contributions to OpenAI’s Sora project underscore the transformative power of technology to shape our world in ways we never thought possible. As we celebrate their achievements, we are reminded that the future holds endless possibilities for those who dare to dream big and push the boundaries of what is deemed achievable in AI development.

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